A better shoot-off

For January we had 58 shooters, for February we had 61.  Next month we may have 70.  We really need to set up a second range.  With our normal shoot-off, it still would take over 2 hours to shoot a 3 bracket shoot-off. With a combined Mag 1x shoot-off we can shoot 7 or 8 seeding rounds and then have a 1 x shoot-off in just over an hour with two ranges.  It is not complicated or hard to do.  Actually it is much easier for announcers and score keepers.

Scoresheets:   At 1:01 p.m. Saturday I received the standing report for seeding.  We started shooting at 1:06 p.m.. By that time, I had the first two scoresheets prepared for rounds one through four. (I used old sheets because that is what I had with me.) A copy of the last page of the standing report is inserted:

The bottom six seeded shooters go on lane 1 to 6 and they constitute the first round.  The next three bottom shooters go on lanes 4, 5, and 6 for round two. (I will suggest changing the lanes later.) First scoresheet is ready to go and shooting can begin. This was done well before we started shooting with the three bracket system. Here is the score sheet for the first two rounds:

The next scoresheet is for rounds 3 and 4.  The next three shooters go on lanes 4,5, and  6 for round three and the next 3 shooters go on 4, 5, and 6 for round 4. Winners move down to 1, 2, and 3.  This second scoresheet was done before shooting started Saturday. Scoresheet for rounds 3 and 4:

I finished all scoresheets required at 1:19 or in 18 minutes.  It took 10 scoresheets or about 2 minutes per sheet to do. This was for one range, but for two ranges it would not have taken any longer. If I was doing this at a shoot, I would have one person making lane assignments and a good writer writing the six names needed on the score sheets.

Duplicating the Results:  I thought it would be a good idea to duplicate the results from Saturday's shoot using this system but found that that was not possible because of placing the new seeded shooters on lanes 4,  5, and 6. By putting the new shooters there the winners are always shooting winners and not newly seeded shooters, so it is impossible to duplicate the results.  I can almost duplicate the results by putting the new seeded shooters on even number lanes, 2, 4 and 6. This makes for an easy scoring  rule, winner on lanes 1 and 2, goes to lane 1, winner on lanes 3 and 4, goes to lane 3, and winner on lanes 5 and 6 goes to lane 5.  Winners are always shooting newly seeded shooters until you run out of them when you are down to 6 shooters or less.  Newly seeded shooters are highlighted in yellow.  You put them on the scoresheet with lower seeded shooter going on the top of the sheet in lanes 2, 4, 6 and then again in 2, 4, 6. When the scorekeeper gets this sheet there are only the 6 newly seeded shooter on the sheet.  The scorekeeper puts the winners in where they go following the rule. To illustrate here is page 9:

The final scoresheet would have been page 10.  There would been only been 4 shooters on this sheet in lanes 2, 4, 6 and then the top seed would have been in lane 2 of the next round. Notice the first 6 shooters would have been round 19, then round 20 would have had four shooters, the three winners and the top seeded Q.C Carter. Round 21 is the last pair on the sheet which is the final two winners,  this almost duplicates Saturday's  result.

Almost but Better:  This almost duplicates the results on Saturday but still does not because we are still using 6 lanes instead of two.  But the differences are actually much better.

Downside Risks:  Under are current system the top seed or any shooter can only drop one place by a loss.  Likewise the top seed only has to win one match to win the event.  Under this system the top seeded shooter has to win at least two matches to win the event and he could drop all the way to 4th. There is also greater risk for the shooter that does not show up. Old West was seeded 2nd and failed to appear (was not going to wait two hours to shoot) and under the current system he only dropped to 3rd.  Under this system it would drop him  to 7th (see placings below)

Speed bias and placings:  When I originally suggested this, I was concerned with mitigating the speed bias.  I thought that shooters going out together should get the same place instead of some getting an advantage based on speed.  I thought, for example, for Saturday the first three out should be in 20th place and so forth.  However, this is difficult to figure out during the shoot and I now think it is not worth the effort.  Also, shooters like to know a specific place. With only one range, only three shooters go out together, with two ranges 6 shooters go out together.  It is not worth the effort to change from the convention that placings are by time out. In regards to Old West, there were four shooters left when he went out with two other shooters.  He got a 22 so he is placed 7th and the other two are place on speed at 5th and 6th.  Someone who is not willing to wait around ought to placed lower than one spot.

Final Standings:  You can edit the final standings on the computer.  It is possible to have three or six shooter have the same standing. The problem is with how many places there are.  Without the speed bias, I think there would been 20 places on Saturday but I am not sure.  It takes some effort to figure it out.  Using the CFDA convention of time out it is easy. Of the first three out, the slowest time out is 61st place, then 60th and 59th.  I would suggest editing as the score sheets are completed, that way the final standing are done when the shoot is over.  If you don't use the speed bias you probably have to edit the standings after the match because you need time to figure out the placings.

Two Range Operation:  With two ranges, you would shoot down to about 12 or so on two ranges.  So the first 48 shooters would be assigned equally to range A & B.  Once you make the lane assignments which are done near the start of the shoot-off you can post the assignments and everyone will know when and where they are shooting. Saturday the highest 13 seeded shooters would be assigned to Range A.  When you get to that point you will have 16 shooters left, the last 13 plus 3 winners from Range B.  Range B would be available to be taken down at that time.

You can always do better, but only if you try!

 

 

PostScript:  You never know how things work until you do them a few times.  I reran the club shoot only doing it on two ranges and in the combined Mag 1x format.  When I ran it on one range, I overlooked that one shooter had 99 so excluding him left 60 shooters.  There was some interesting differences from a one range shoot.

Downside Risk:  Shooting on two ranges makes the downside risk greater.  Shooting on just two lanes the downside risk for the #1 seed was just one place.  Shooting on one range combined, 6 lanes, the downside risk for # 1 seed was 4 places.  Shooting on two ranges, 12 total lanes the downside risk is 8 places. For illustration,  on two ranges the # 1 seed would fall to 9th place if he lost his first match with a 22.  Also, the no show shooter who had been seeded 2nd falls to 9th in a two range combined shoot-off.  To win the event the #1 seed must win 4 matches in a combined two range Mag 1x shoot-off.

Upside Opportunity:  There is also better opportunity for the shooter shooting well in the shoot-off.  For illustration, I was seeded 8th and won 7 matches to move to second. Winning 8 matches would have won the event in the two lane Mag 1x shoot-off.  However, in a two range shoot-off any of the top 12 shooters can win with 4 wins.  Once a shooter makes to the top 12, they all have an equal opportunity to win.  The 12th shooter can win the event with 4 wins, just like the #1 shooter can win with 4 wins. One more win gets you to top six, one more gets you top three, then finals.  A combined shoot-off is much more fair.  It rewards those who are shooting well and negates the advantage of seeding.

Fundamental Fairness:  Under the current bracket system only the top seeded 1/3 have a chance to win the event. To be in that top 1/3, for the average shooter, it has more to do with chance than skill.  With a combined shoot-off, all shooters have a chance to win the event.  In the bracket system, the 20th seed would have to win 20 consecutive matches to win. The bottom 40 shooters have no chance to win. In the combined system, any shooter, even the 60th seed can win with 12 consecutive wins.

Time:  With 60 shooters a 1x shoot-off takes 59 matches, you need 59 losses.  A bracket system is limited to one range, so it takes 20 rounds.  With a combined system you can use two ranges, so the time for the shoot-off is cut almost in half.  More time for the seeding matches, which of course reduces the chance factor in seeding.

Conclusion:  The combined shoot-off is so much better than what we do now, there really no good reason not to try it.  It is no more work than what we do now.  It does not take any more time.

Setting up a second range does involve considerable more work but we should be doing that anyway during the cooler months.  With a good crew of four a second range can be set up between 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.

 

Combined Magnificent 3x Two Winning Shots Shoot-off

 At Sky Wolf Ranch we had a chance to test a Combined Magnificent 3x Two Winning Shots shoot-off.  Despite what you will hear, it really work well and might have great potential for us. 

Confusion:  Because it was a spur of the moment deal, I did not adequately explain the shoot-off format to the shooters.  They were confused by it and they will tell you that it did not work or was horrible.  That is my fault.  If they understood it and got use to it, they would love it because it gives every shooter the opportunity to win the event and to compete against more shooters.  They get to shoot more shells.

I was trying to be the scorekeeper, announcer, and computer person all at the same time and I got confused.  There was confusion on the lane assignments because of this.  This was my fault and there is an easy fail/safe method of lane assignment which I will describe below.

Withdrawal or failure to show:  After the shoot I recreated the final standing using the 17 shooters who participated in the shoot-off.  The standings are correct except I treated all that did not shoot as withdrawn shooters.  This I should not have done. Only Shady Mike was a withdrawal, the other 5 shooter should have been "no shows."  The difference can best be illustrated by Emi J.  By making her a withdrawn shooter, she finishes in 9th place with 4 points.  She should have been left in and because she was the 4th seeded shooter, she would have finished in 4th with 20 points.  Leaving "no shows" in also reduces the scorekeeper/announcer confusion as I will set for below.

Fail/Safe Scoring: The confusion I had came from the pressure of trying to do everything and by not correctly leaving "no shows" in.  There is a simple fail/safe method of doing this.   On the first scoresheet the computer person enters the bottom six seeds on lanes 1,2,3,4,5, and 6.  The next three lowest seeds are entered for the second match on lanes 4, 5, and 6. On the second scoresheet for the top match you enter the next three lowest seeds on lanes 4, 5, and 6.  For the second match on the second scoresheet, you enter the next lowest seeds on lanes 4, 5, and 6.  You now have the scoresheets for the first four matches with no possibility of error or confusion.  The first winner out goes to lane 1, second to lane 2 and third to lane 3.  You can make up the scoresheets all the way to the end of the shoot-off with no risk of making a mistake. Scoresheets should be make by computer person reviewed by match director.

The announcer and scorekeeper tasks is easy, they just have to put in the winners on lanes 1, 2, and 3. There is really no reason for the standing report to be given to the scorekeeper or announcer.  They simply work off of the score sheets.

Those that are shooting well, will rotate on the first three lanes because they will not normally go out in the same order every round.

"No shows" are left in so that they get they proper placings.  If you have a "no show" in a round you just shoot the round as if they were there. You would shoot 4 or 5 shooters or not shoot the round at all if there were three "no show," but the scoresheets will reflect the proper placings of these shooters.

It is not hard if you have a system and follow the system. 

Magnificent 3x, two winning shots: This will work great for up to 42 shooters.  It will take 15 rounds to complete. Three shooters go out per round so in 13 rounds 39 shooters have been eliminated.  It will take two more rounds to finish the last three shooters.

Magnificent 2x, two winning shots:  For matches with greater than 42 shooters, we would need to use a 2x shoot-off.  Four shooters are eliminated in each round and therefore 13 rounds would eliminate 52 shooters with up to 6 shooters to sort in two more rounds. 58 shooters would take 15 rounds.  Up to 64 shooters would take 16 rounds. 

Always Test: We never do anything we have not tested.  On Wednesday, I will have a 42 shooters event run and ready for shoot-off.  I intend then to shoot the shoot-off testing the scoring system.  I would ask the board to participate and see how it works. Please help me test this!

Be Prepared!

 Be prepared!

By the start of the circuit on March 10th in Texas, I believe the pandemic will be over. Omnicon will have infected most people and most will have immunity effectively ending the pandemic. However, there may be some folks that have been lucky and, of course, there maybe some like myself that have had one of the vaccine variants, such as Delta, that does not provide immunity to omnicon.  Those that have been vaccinated probably will have been already infected with omnicon, but some who were boosted late may still be at risk.

There is no need to be fearful.  Covid is an easily treated disease and generally is not lethal.  The 850,000 deaths are largely the result of lack of treatment.  That is why the USA has the highest death rate in the world from covid, lack of treatment.

Vaccine Viruses:  The experts predicted that if you have a vaccine program during a pandemic it would lead to variants. That is exactly what happened with such vaccine viruses such as Delta.  The original strain of covid 19 has been long extinct.  The vaccines were for the original strain and that is why vaccination will not give you protection against Delta or omnicon.  But there is no need to cower in fear.  Preparation is the answer.

Off Label Treatment:  There are numerous off label drugs that work very effectively against covid. The one I am most familiar with is ivermectin. It is normally given in a 5 day course of treatment.  I personally know many people who have been treated with ivermectin and all have recovered within the 5 days.  It is best if treatment begins within 72 hours of the onset of symptoms, but it appears to also be effective in the later stages of the disease. I watched a podcast of an elderly woman in Houston who came to a treating doctor with an oxygen level of 86 who was treated with ivermectin and she survived.  Had she gone to the emergency room, she would have certainly died.  I also know of an instance where treatment was started just hours before the ventilator with a discharge from the hospital five days later.  Ivermectin is safe, effective and cheap, but you have to work to get it.  Be prepared!

Personal History:  I was fortunate that a good friend came down with covid in the summer of 2021.  He was struggling with the disease and it took us two weeks to get him off label treatment.  Most doctors in Phoenix have been ordered not to treat covid patients by their employers. Hospitals here also refuse to treat.  Once we got him treatment he recovered in a few days.  Because of that, I found a doctor and a pharmacy that would provide me off label drugs as a preventative.  I started a preventative ivermectin program before the South Dakota shoot in August. I got covid after the Nebraska shoot.  I started ivermectin treatment within 24 hours of symptoms.  I would say that my illness was similar to a mild cold.  I stayed away from folks for 14 days but think I was not infectious after about 2 days.  My wife did not get covid.  I have four or five comorbidities: heart disease, kidney failure, obesity, old age and Vitamin D deficiency.  The vitamin D may not be a comorbidity because I did not have a blood test the summer of 2021 so I don't know.  Vitamin D is produced by being in the sun, so all the range master duties may have raised my levels to the level of prevention.  Studies have shown that adequate levels of Vitamin D is preventative.

Course of Action:  I am seeing my kidney doctor on the 23rd.  I will have had blood test to check Vitamin D levels by then and I will demand a prescription for ivermectin so that I can start a preventative treatment program before the start of the circuit in March.  I may have already had omnicon but I will prepare for the season as if I am at risk.  That means ivermectin when traveling and the supplements recommended such as Vitamins D, C, Zinc and others.  See flccc.net

Be Prepared!  And stop practicing missing!

Points and Speed Bias

Club points ought to reflect how well a shooter has shot at an event.  On the national level, the top gun system works pretty well for those shooters in contention, say the top 30 or so shooters in the sport.  However at the club level the system does not always work that well because of the speed bias.

The speed bias is necessary to make the computer work.  Placings are based on x count and speed.  This results in quick shooters generally getting more points than they deserve.  For example, at an event at Rio this year, Half Cock and I had the same x count. Half Cock had beaten me in the main match and a reasonable conclusion would be that he had shot better than me.  However, I got 6 more points than Half Cock because of the speed bias.  Rio, of course, really emphasizes the speed bias because they do not consider the shoot off.   

On national level speed bias is not a problem because of the rule that recognized place must be shot off.  Since to be competitive, one must have 6 or more good events and these points will have come from recognized places.  Therefore, for the shooters in contention, points do not result from speed bias. 

We do a fair job of mitigating the speed bias by awarding points after the shoot off, but we can do better.  I ran a trial system based on only x count this year but I have concluded that it was not worth the effort it took to administer.

However, a small change in our shoot off format would have a substantial benefit in mitigating the speed bias.  I suggest the three shooter 2x magnificent shoot off.

We currently divide the field into three brackets based on x count and speed.  We then shoot a 1x magnificent shoot off in each bracket.  This can result in the speed bias affecting the ability of a shooter to mitigate the speed bias if he does not make it into Bracket A because of the speed bias. The split between Bracket A and B can really be unfair.  What if we divided the field into 2 brackets with about 1/2 the field in each bracket.  Looking at 2021, 100% of the points that were counted for all of the award winners were earned by being in the top half of the field.  Of all the points earned by the award winners, being in the top half of the field amounted to 93% for Master Gunfighter, 82% for Gunfighter, 71% for Sheriff and 93% for Deputy.  To do well, you have to be in the top half of the field.  Sort like at the national level, you have to be shooting for recognized places to get enough points to compete.

The division of the field would be at the break between 2 and 3 x or between 3 and 4 x.  You need to divide at a clear break to avoid the speed bias.  The wording for the rule would be "The field will be divided into two brackets at the nearest x count break to the center of the field"  For 2021 the break would have been at 2-3 for January, February, March, April, August, September, October, November  and at 3-4 for May, June and July.  I guess we don't shoot as well in the heat of summer.

Three shooter 2x Magnificent Shoot Off:  Three shooters shoot on three lanes (two or three) winning hits.  When a shooter gets (2 or 3) winning hits, he/she steps back and allows the other two shooter to finish the match (2 or 3) winning hits.  Loser  is eliminated having been beaten by two shooters.  In essence the loser has lost to two shooter and therefore has 2 xs. Next seeded shooter shoots against the two winners.

Big advantage of this is:

1.  All places are determined on the line and not by speed bias.     

2.  It is a two x elimination event.  

We need to test for time on the mountain. 

Time Test: 

We tested this on the mountain with 21 shooters shooting.  For the first 45 minutes we shot 3 winning shots.  We got 19 losses per hour.  We then tried 2 winning shots.  We got 22 losses per hour. A average turnout shoot at Pioneer has 38 shooters and it would take 2 hours to do a 3 winning shot shoot-off.  It would take 1 hour 45 minutes to do a 2 winning shot shoot off. Three winning shots may not be practical considering time but two winning shots may be.  For example, 8:30 to 11:30 for seeding no x matches, then 11:30 to 1:15 for 2x three shooter two winning shots shoot off.

Scoring: Winning shots were carried over from the three shooter portion of the match to the two shooter portion of the match.  Prior shots by contestants were not re-scored between the two shot contestants. (You could restart at 0-0, but that would lengthen the matches)

Match Length:  With three winning shots the majority of matches were resolved in less than 8 shots for both winners to be determined. However there were two matches that went to 14 rounds. (14 is the maximum on the score sheet so that was the dreaded two loss maximum.)  With two winning hits the majority of the matches were determined in less than 6 rounds with only one match going to 8 rounds. (14 was maximum in this event, but we could reduce it to 8 for 2 winning shots, since shooter are familiar with that. I would prefer keeping it at 14.)

Best Length:  Two winning hits was clearly better than three winning hits because it resolved the issue quicker while still doing a good job sorting. See next paragraph below.

Speed Bias vs. Gunfighter Bias: The three shooter match has an inherent speed bias built into it but that did not appear to be a problem.  I think the speed bias was overcome by the 2x factor which of course favors the better gunfighter. A quicker shooter may eliminate a better gunfighter in a single elimination type event but the better gunfighter is normally going to prevail in a multiple x fight. Examples of this were No Name surviving 4 rounds, Wyoming Ranger surviving 8 rounds, Desert Gator surviving 9 rounds and Half Cock Willie surviving 11 rounds. (For those not familiar with our shooters these shooters tend to be our better gunfighters while maybe not our quickest)

Conclusion:  The 2x three shooter shoot off two winning hits would be a good format to try at Pioneer.  It does a good job of insuring that top gun points are determined on the line and not just by the speed bias inherent in the computer program.

We would still have the speed bias in seeding, but I think that is actually a good sorting tool.  We have a fair number of shooters that succumb to the pressure of trying to go fast in the last round and end up being penalized by the dreaded 22.

 

Club Points

 I write this post for the board members of the Association of Arizona Gunslinger because I know this will come up for discussion for next year and because of some whining.

Rodeo:  Rodeo has been complaining that he could win seven event and still not win the top gun award.  That is simply false.  Rodeo has 4 wins, Hitch 4 wins, Shady Mike 2, and Muletrain 1.  Rodeo will not win because he only has 6 events.  To win top gun you have to participate.  If you don't shoot, you are not going to do well.   The nonsense about winning seven and not winning is about the points being weighted according to the number of shooters at an event.  What we do is what CFDA does.

CFDA Top Gun:  CFDA points are weighted according size of the shoot.  State titled events are worth 40 points, Territorial titled events are worth 50 points, National is worth 60 points, World is worth 70.  The more shooters there are the more points are in play.  We do the same.  Our points are inverse of actual standings.  If we have 45 shooters it is 45 points event.  We follow the CFDA policy of weighing the points by the size of the shoot.  Rodeo can whine about the snow birds all he wants.  Our point system is fair.  He had an equal opportunity to shoot in the January shoot, a larger shoot, as did all other members.  To complain about the weighing is just whining.

 

Speed Bias:  For scoring convenience, there is a speed bias in the CFDA scoring program.  For the national top gun system it in not a problem because for those in competition, say the top 20 shooters, all of the points come from "recognized places"  for which shoot offs are required.  There is no speed bias at the national level.  However, at the club level the speed bias is a real problem.  For illustration, Rodeo always gets more points than he deserves.  Rodeo can be shooting poorly and can be with a group with the same x count and he will always get top points because he is the quickest.  Month after month this bias adds up.  I have no answer for this bias but we do mitigate it in part.

Speed Bias Mitigation: We score by actual standings.  Rio using standings after the seeding rounds.  At Rio there is no opportunity to over come the speed bias.  To compete for top gun you need to finish in bracket A.  Because we use the actual standings after the shoot off, a shooter has the opportunity to overcome the speed bias.  Our system is like the national system wherein the points are determined on the line by shoot off.

One Point Differential: In our system point decease 1 point per place.  The national system decreases by more for the top 6 places.  I would suggest that our system is better for club use because there really is not much difference between 1st and 2nd.  Who gets first might result from speed bias, luck of the draw, or who has fastest load, as much as who is the better shooter.  It all balances out in the long run.  What is more important, under our system every shooter gets at least 1 point for shooting. For Master Gunfighter, Gunfighter and Sheriff this is not significant.  But for Deputy, it will matter as to awards.  Look at the places for this year.  Those bottom points will matter.  At Rio only 20 shooters get points.  If we had a 40 points system only 35 would get points.  If a shooter comes and shoots, he should get points.

Changes:  I think the system has really worked well.  The only change I might suggest is that maybe we should eliminate the overall youth award. We really do not have enough youth participation to justify the overall youth award.  I have not observed any problem with sandbagging.  Almost all of the shooter take pride in moving up in bracket.  The bracket awards really expands participation in the awards.

What might have been!

The 2020 and 2021 Arizona State fell victim to the cancel culture.  It is really unfortunate because a unique and great format had been planned which now will probably never see the light of day. I  am going set forth the format so that if other clubs might want to use all or part of it, they can consider it. The unique features were the following:

Shoot down to the magnificent 7 the first day:  Most title matches shoot 7or 8 rounds and finish mid day.  There is enough time to shoot down to the magnificent if you start promptly and are efficient in the use of your range time.  This has been done  at several title matches in 2021. The only complaint you hear is that it is too tiring.  In response, I would suggest that fatigue only affects small number of the shooters and it is not nearly as tiring as shooting long in a bracket, i.e 10 rounds or more, then finishing main match, i.e. 5 rounds or more, then having to shoot in the magnificent finals.  That is a long day and probably affects the outcome of the event.

If it takes 6 hours of range time to shoot the main match, it really does not matter whether you shoot 5 hours the first day and 1 hour the second day or 6 hours the first day.  It is probably more efficient to shoot it all the first day.  Our affection for just 7 or 8 rounds comes from the desire to "make it to the second day."  We dislike the elimination.  With this format, everyone remains in play for prizes and substantial cash on the second day.

Administration: By shooting down to the magnificent the first day, you can have the rounds drawn in advance for the second day and start promptly.

There are two ways title matches are run.  Divisions are assigned to specific ranges or divisions are rotated on all of the ranges.  Rotating divisions is much more efficient because there is no down time between rounds.  Normally, the next round is at the table before a round is finished.  While you are shooting the men, you draw the ladies and youth.  While you shoot the ladies and youth, you draw the men.  Paper flows evenly and there is plenty of time to input scores and draw rounds.  When you assign specific divisions to specific range, all shooter start and finish at about same time, so there is down time to draw the next round.  Ten or fifteen minutes between rounds add up especially when 3 or 4 ranges sit idle.

Every shooter was going to be shooting for prizes and cash every day. Recognized places:  At most state events there are between 25 to 30 recognized places.  Because recognized places must be determined on the line much range time is used having shoot offs for place.  Why not have the format determine all of the recognized places.  This was going to be done by have 14 recognized places for the magnificent shooters and then 12 recognized places 1st, 2nd and 3rd in four second chance brackets. There was going to be 26 recognized places. As an option, if you want more recognized places you can have 5 brackets with 3 places (29), or 4 brackets with 5 places (34). (The computer can handle 5 brackets)  In any event, the format determines the recognized places without excessive shoot offs.  And every shooters is still shooting for prizes and cash every day.

 

Cash Prizes Money:  The cash prize money of $4,000 was going to be divided equally between the magnificent shooters and the second chance shooters.  In addition to buckles and other awards 26 shooters were going to win not less than $100 and not more than $250 each.  The bracket shoots were going to be second chance to insure that the prize money was spread around. With this format there would be 26 money winners.  If you used a true bracket match (including all shooters) you might only get 14 money winners if all the magnificent shooters also won all places in the brackets, which is possible but not likely.

Summary: There is nothing in this that has not been done before. If my memory is correct, we shot down to the magnificent the first day at the Southern in 2021 and also at Southern in 2020 finishing before 3:00. I remember because I left to go to Palo Duro Canyon missing a large shoot off for place.  I remember cash awards in the 2nd chance shoot at Idaho.  

What might have been.  Try this you will like it.

 

NEAR MISSES!

 I attended a titled shoot in California in May.  After that shoot two gunslingers came down with covid.  I don't know if they got it there, they may have gotten it traveling to or from.  I had no contact with one and very little contact with the other.  At least, because of the timing of the onset of the disease, the one I had contact with probably was infected at the time. A near miss.

In August, I was at another titled match.  I watched a good friend shoot and it was obvious to me that he was ill.  I was there giving him encouragement and checking on his welfare, thinking the heat was affecting him.  He left the event early and later tested positive.  Another near miss.

I survive near misses probably because I am, by nature, a bit standoffish.  During competition I tend to stay by myself. A fault I am working on but now probably is a good trait. 

Since then one of our shooters on the mountain has tested positive.  We aggressively pursued treatment for him.  It took us two weeks to get medicine to treat the disease.  This is a disgrace!   The medical community has been brow beat into denying treatment for covid.  It is available, but you got to work to get it.  The doctors who have successfully treated patients have form an alliance, Front Line Critical Care Alliance, flccc.net.  Don't listen to the media attacks on them.  It is all lies to deny you treatment and promote the money making vaccines.

Safety:  Our titled events are probably low risk because they are outdoors with good spacing and ventilation.  However, travel is high risk, especially if by airplane.  I am going to drive to World to avoid airplanes.  The Delta virus is many times more infectious than the original virus.

What can you do at a titled event?

Use all the space available to you. Don't stand on top of each other.  Wash you hands.  Carry disinfectant and use it after every match.  It should be part of your cleaning routine. 

If you feel ill, stay away.  Understand that if you are vaccinated, you may have immunity only against the original virus which is probably extinct by now.  You are not immune from the Delta variant. Vaccinated person can catch Delta and spread it.  Delta is worst than the original virus and much more infectious.

If you are so inclined, start a preventative treatment plan.  It works.  Or in the alternative, have the medicine needed to treat the disease on hand so you can start treatment upon the first symptom. I will rely on preventative treatment until after World then I will wait with treatment medicine in the house.  With treatment the illness runs it's course in about five days.  Without treatment death may happen.  Know that currently if you go into the hospital you will get "supportive care" only.

 

"I come to dance!" Royal Wade Kimes

Fight the good fight!

Fight the good fight!

What the U.S. government and the medical community is doing borders on criminal.  There is a safe and effective treatment for covid-19. These deaths are simply the result of the medical community denying treatment for those who need treatment for covid-19.  The government has dictated to doctors and hospitals that treatment should be withheld.  It is hard to get the medicine that would cure covid-19.  The protocol is known as I-Mask + for prevention or I-Math for hospital treatment.  It works.  See flccc.net

A good friend is fighting the good fight right now. It is hard to get treatment when the government is against you.  But you got to fight.  We shall get him treatment.

Don't think that because you have been vaccinated you are safe.  You are not. Of my friends and family, those who have gotten covid-19 are evenly divided between those who have been vaccinated and those who have not.  Today, I listened to a podcast by a treating doctor who today had received 25 positive tests back on patients of which 17 had been vaccinated.  Whether you have been vaccinated or not you are going get covid-19, unless....

You got to fight the good fight.  Demand from your health care provider preventative treatment, you can get it.  If they will not give you to it, get someone else.

I have sufficient doses to get me through Nebraska and the World's.  Then I don't know what I will do.  I don't like taking drugs even if they are as safe as aspirin.  I may stop the I-Mask+ protocol and be prepared to treat the virus when I get it.  I am committed to staying strong.  I am going to lose a pound per week and am going to get fit. 

I will fight the good fight.  I will demand my doctor provide to me and my family good treatment.  I urge every gunfighter demand and get a plan of preventative treatment before they go to titled events.  To do less means that we lose more legends before their time.

 

Boy, it is going be fun!

 The forecast for September 4th at Sky Wolf Ranch is for a high of 94*.  That is spring like weather for here.  We expect about 30 shooters but we can handle more.  We will have 3 brackets if we get 36 or less shooters.  If we get 37 or more, we will have have four brackets.  If we get 49 or more, we will have 5 brackets.

If we have 30 shooters with 8 in the money that is 25% of the shooters will be in the prize money.  If we have more shooters, there will be more in the money.

For you greedy gunslingers, you can double your money if you win both the main match and your bracket, you would think this would be easy to do, but in our test shoot, that did not happen.  We shall see.

It will be a blast.  See you tomorrow at Pioneer for an Arizona  Bracket shoot.

Sky Wolf Ranch Jackpot Shoot

 The Sky Wolf Ranch Jackpot Shoot - Added will be held on September 4th, 2021.  It will more like a CFDA titled match than most of our club shoots here in Arizona.  Here are some of its novel features.

Added:  The corporate sponsor, Loess Hills Paladins, Inc, is warranting the purse.  If there is not enough shooters to fund the prize money, Loess Hills will "add" the additional money needed.  Payout is 2/3 prize money with 1/3 going to the venue. Entry fee is $15.  Prize money will not be less than $300.

Last Man Standing:  It will be a 2x last man standing shoot at championship distance and targets.  There will also be a 3x last man standing bracket shoot at championship distance and targets.

Five Shot Option: We will use Arizona Five because it sorts better and saves range time. By using Arizona Five we will be able to give every shooter 5 xs instead of 3 or 4 xs.  Rules are as set for in CFDA five shot format except there are no ties or tie breakers in Arizona Five.  0-0 or 1-1 results in an X for both shooters. 2-2 results in a W for both shooters.  All shooters leave the line at the same time.

Simultaneous Bracket Shoot:  After round 2 of main match a bracket report will be run and all shooters will be placed in brackets.  We anticipate three brackets.  The simultaneous bracket shoot will begin after round 3 of main match.  Shooters will only shoot in bracket match after they are eliminated from main match. For an explanation see my March 7th, 2021, post.

Late Arrivals:  Sign in is 7:00 a.m., summer hours.  For some coming a substantial distance, they may want to come late and skip the main match.  If they get here before registration finishes for the bracket shoot, we will let them enter the bracket shoot in their appropriate bracket.  We have yearly bracket reports on most shooters.

Additional Sponsors:  As of today the purse is $300 which will be divided 1st $50, main match, and three brackets, 2nd $25 main match and three brackets.  If any one else would like to be a sponsor, please contact me.  Sponsors will be recognized at the shooter's meeting and on the face book. It would be great if we could get more sponsors to "add"  to the pot.

Tune up gone awry!

I thought we had a pretty good speed warm up session on Friday for Rio, but perceptions can mislead.

That gunslinger from Alamosa won the marble match hitting better than  90% at mid three speed shooting a borrowed rig and gun. I heard he offered big dollars for the rig and gun, but only left with some parts to duplicate the gun. At Rio, he did reasonable well shooting the same rig and gun until he ran into the system in the shoot offs.

That crippled lady from Buckeye showed great determination making steady progress.  She has shown some speed recently and Friday she hit a legitimate .340.  If she will learn the system, she will be unbeatable when the boot comes off in 4 weeks. Not to rile up the daughter, but she better stop wasting all that wax or she will be the slow one in the family.  The daughter did put me out of the shoot offs at Rio, might have been pay back from treating her beau so summarily.

I thought I had a good warm up Friday, but it turned out to just be foolish folly.  After Alamosa collected his loot I tried the Rodeo/Thirsty technique and shot a few WR times.  It made me hopeful. Grailfever is a dreadful disease.  At Rio, I missed my first 16 shots, losing two matches and only getting an over time win in the third. I then reverted to the system and shot pretty well until the final match of the main match when grailfever struck again.  

I must mention that No Name won the event going clean in the main match. Great shooting pardner!  He was beaten in the shoot offs, but at Rio shoot offs don't count.  First place in the points is the winner!

Lesson for me is to go back to the bucket.  Shoot the system.  When I shoot the system, I am pretty tough, when I chase the grail, I am just another flash in the pan.

 

Tuning UP

 The Arizona Bigs event for today has been cancelled but there maybe a few die-hards (pun intended) showing up anyway.  The targets are up, so if you show up, have at it.  Shooters on the mountain should be shooting at a 80% hit rate on average. Generally, they will shoot better than that.

Never ever slow down!  Your quickest draw is your most accurate draw. Why slow shoot?  It only teaches you to shoot slow and to miss.  Why waste the wax and primers. I posted two photos of Arizona Bigs shot by two Arizona shooters which depicted 100% hit rate at championship distance and 85% in the black.  The scoffers say "so what, that is only practice." I respond by saying that is the most pressure I will ever shoot under and both shooters were at speeds 5% quicker than their bracket times for the year.  We don't practice accuracy on the mountain, we only practicc speed.   But we don't practice missing either.

Arizona Bigs:  With Arizona Bigs targets you are shooting at a 10 inch target at 10 feet with a height of 45 inches.  That is the same as shooting at a 15 inch target at 15 feet but you get the advantage of seeing your actual hits for those shots that miss the black.  It improves your focus.  It also improves your speed.  The larger target takes away one of the stressors on the shooter, the fear of missing the target. On the two targets I posted, both shooters were about 20 milliseconds quicker than their bracket times for the year, about what we expect from shooting closer (but not because of distance but because of lack of stressor.)

Frustration:  I always get frustrated when I watch a shooter slow shoot when I know they are quicker shooting their quickest draw.  The myth dies hard.  You are not better shooting 6s at 40% than shooting 4s at 60%.  Many believe they are more accurate when they slow down.  That is only true if you shoot a defective draw.  Most believe that, even when it is not true for them.  If it is true for you, change you draw. 

New shooter:  I had a chance to video a new shooter who, when I viewed the video, had a perfect draw. No flail, no poke. Less than a week later I had the chance to watch Short Keg.  He had the identical draw.  Needless to say I am urging the new shooter to change nothing.  The only difference between the two is 50 years of practice.

Hope to see you on the line down the road a bit.  Stay safe.

Know the Rule, Follow the Rule

 At a club practice shoot this month, we failed to know the rule, follow the rule.  Most people think our monthly shoot is a practice shoot for individual shooters.  It is not, it is a practice for the club to learn how to run a CFDA shoot and to follow the rules.

A frequent failure is Rule IV.6. which says "Each contestant must have an opponent.  If the opponent does not show up, the present contestant will win by default and will not be allowed to shoot uncontested."

My observation at titled events and local shoots we will get this wrong 90% of the time, especially if there is more than one no show. The tendency is to want to redo the draw either at the table or at the scoring shack. This delays the round and may have unknown consequences.  If you simply know the rule, follow the rule, the round runs smoothly, the scoring and computer handles everything correctly.

To the chorus who say why are you bringing this up, it is just a practice shoot, my response is there are numerous good reasons to talk about it. 

First, we need to "know the rule and follow the rule."  That is why we have practice shoots.

Second, it matters.  For our club points we give out 15 awards. Last year most awards were determined by 1 point or less.  If we had followed the rule, among the four shooters affected there would have been 3 wins and 1 loss.  As the round was redid, there were 2 wins and 2 losses.  Somebody lost a win.  That win meant 4 to 12 points in the club points race depending on who lost out.  It matters.

Third, this comes up frequently at titled events.  Failure to follow the rule causes delays.  If you have 30 shooters on a range and two no shows, you will get 30 opinions as to what should happen.  If you just follow the rules, the round will be shot and over before 30 Old Timers reach a consensus on what to do.

Scoring: There is really two separate issues here, what happens at the range and what happens at the scoring shack.   I think at the table it should be a W with 22, and an X with 33.  That way the scoring shack knows who has a match DQ.  There is a difference between someone who just missed his match (33) and someone who has withdrawn.  The scoring shack and match director need to code the withdrawn, Match DQ 99 or new 86 code.

Titled  Events:  It appears that title events this year will be at or near capacity.  Range time is important.  Following IV.6. saves range time.  I recall one title event where we lost 4 hours of range time because this simple rule was not followed.  Know the rule, follow the rule.  Shoot em as they are drawn.

P.S. Thinking about getting on my soap box about fragmentation. What do you think, are you up to it

What we learned

 The practice shoots yesterday of the Association of Arizona Gunslingers was not a club shoot for individual practice, fun, or socializing.  It was  training shoot to hone our skills as a club to put on CFDA shoots. We were training scorekeepers, range officers, match directors, computer operators, announcers, and generally all those that are needed to put on a CFDA match.  We ran to completion a last man standing event and a true bracket event.  We had individuals training on all of the skills necessary.  To have a good training we needed 18 gunfighter and I thank the 20 gunslingers that came. We are limited to 20 shooters at this venue.  If anyone is interested in learning these skills let Shady or I know and we be sure to get you trained up.  If you just want to shoot, have fun or socialize come to our monthly shoot, but remember to thank those that are willing to train so that your shoots run smoothly.

What we learned:

Computers:  We ran two computers hooked to one printer so that we could train more operators.  One computer (provided by Rio Salado Vaqueros) ran the main match from registration to the final standings.  The second computer (Loess Hills Paladin's) ran the bracket match, all shooters were entered into the bracket match.  Both were pretty flawless.  We could have done this on one computer but by having two, we doubled the opportunity for training.  I am now confident that, if the need arises, there are six members who can run a match from start to finish.  Next time we do this we will reverse the operators so that all are comfortable with both types of matches.

We generally do not run divisions in Arizona, so the next time we do this we will run divisions.  The limiting factor is having enough Ladies and Youth for one division.  We need to run the main match with divisions.

Range Time:  We had 19 shooters on a two lane range.  That is the same as having 57 shooters  on one 6 lane range at Pioneer. We started at 9:30 and finished at 2:00 P.M.  So if we started at 8:30, we would finish at 1:00 P.M. which is well within our allotted time.  We shot a 2x main match and a 2x bracket match. We did however used modified score sheets which I will explain below.

Modified Scoresheets:  We ran the main match simultaneously with the bracket match.  After round 2, we ran a bracket report and entered all shooters into the bracket match.  We started the bracket match after round 3 of the main match.

Since we were only using one range, we could have run a standard bracket match.  The problem with doing that is that some shooters would get 4 rounds while others might get as many as 16 rounds.  This would not be conducive to a club practice shoot where you are trying to get most shooters an equal opportunity to shoot.  To avoid that, we modified the scoresheets by striking those shooters still in the main match.  This resulted in only two shooters getting 4 rounds and the most any other shooter got was 11 rounds.  Most shooters got between 6 and 10 rounds. (80%)  Only two got 11 and two got 4. (10%)

Chorus:  Now for the chorus of folks telling me that this in not fair to have shooters start late in the bracket.  It is eminently fair.  It is harder to progress upward in the main match than it is to progress upward in a bracket of eliminated shooters.  You have to remember that we score by losses, not wins. What matters is the number of losses a shooter gets.  Here each shooter got 4 x s, two in the main match and two in the bracket.  They all got the same number of x s.  If there is any unfairness, it is that the shooters not in the bracket match yet, have tougher opponents, which leads me to the next and unexpected factor of resurrection.

Ressurection Factor:  This was unintended and surprising.  A good illustration was Troublemaker. She drew Shady Mike and Everett Hitch in the first two rounds. She went out in round 2.  It shows how unfair and ruthless the luck of the draw can be.  But she was shooting good  and she shot her way to the top and won the gunfighter bracket, a bracket I might add that had a Overall World Champion, a Shootist World Champion and a club Top Gun in it.  Likewise, Muletrain won the Master Gunfighter bracket even though he went out in round 4 of the main match.  Only in the  Sheriff bracket did the bracket winner, Dakota Drifter, go deep in the main match.  It is a little like the resurrection feature that occurs at Rio.

We will train on.  Want to learn how to run a match, let us know.  We are always looking for workers.

Training and Testing

I write the post for the board members of The Association of Arizona Gunslingers.  Other clubs may also find it of interest.  I think that as a CFDA club we ought to, on occasion, shoot a CFDA match. To train and test for this we are going to shoot a CFDA 2x main match with a simultaneous 3x bracket match on Saturday March 6.  A match on the mtn with 18 shooters is the same as a 54 shooter match at Pioneer assuming one range. 

Training: To facilitate training we will use two computers.  We will use Shady's or Rio's computer for the main match with Shady, Southwest and Miss Kitty or others running the main match. It will be a standard 2x last man standing event from start to finish complete with final standings.  The Loess Hills computer with be used for the bracket match with Alleluia, Viper and Lazy Eye and others running the event. It also will be a last man standing bracket event 3x.  The number of brackets will be determined by number of shooters divided by 6.

I have run this several times with 52 shooters with modified scoresheets on one computer and it works great, but we can get more training with two computers and two computers will lessen the confusion factor.

Testing:  We are primarily testing range time.  18 on the mtn is equal to 54 at Pioneer.  15 on mtn is equal to 45.  We should get a feel for range time needed at Pioneer.  It will be Hateful Eight.  

Since we are just using one range there is no need to modify scoresheets, although this takes more range time than the method used with modified scoresheets.  We will shoot Round 1 and 2 of the main match then print a bracket report.  During Round 3 of main match we will register and draw the bracket match.  Then we will shoot round 1 of the bracket match, then round 4 of main match, then round 2 of bracket and so forth until both matches are complete.

We are testing range time. My guess is that with only one range we may be limited to a 2x main match and 2x bracket shoot.  We shall see. 

 

Range Testing:  My personal opinion is that on the 27th we ought to set up two ranges, however I know that the majority of the board will be opposed to two ranges because of the work involved.  In my testing with 52 shooters I used two 6 lane ranges.  To do this you must use modified scoresheets because a shooter can not be in two places at the same time.  After round 2  you run the bracket report and enter all of the shooters in the bracket match.  Then you start the bracket with shooters that have been eliminated from the main match.  Shooters that are still in the main match get a W with an 11.00 for time. Shooters without opponents just move down the scoresheet to the next available shooter or to slot 13 for a CFDA bye. It is easy to do and works well.  Scoresheets are modified before they go to the table.

In my test run, main match ran on two ranges for 3 rounds, then main match on range A to completion, and brackets on range B for three rounds.  After round 3, the brackets were shot on both range A and B because the main match was nearing completion and there were so few shooters.  It worked great on the scoring program with correct standings in all matches.

In my test runs, I also shot divisions.  We could do this also but the limiting factor is whether there are enough Ladies and youth to make another division.  I did it and it worked well. We should practice this some time.

Club Points:  Points for the main match would be as usual for the March 27 match.  If we also did a bracket match we could have points following the current rules for that event.  Assuming 48 shooters, we then would have a 48 point event and 12 point event. 

Scoring question - kind of complicated

 Preface: None of the four clubs in Arizona ever shoot a CFDA match.  That is because of the heat. If you shoot an elimination match, in 115 degree heat, the shooters leave as they are eliminated and you are left with few people to take the range down.  Therefore, all of the clubs shoot the Arizona bracket match in which all of the shooters make the shoot offs and therefore stay around to take down the range.

I would like to get our clubs to shoot a CFDA match occasionally.  I propose a last man standing main match 2x with a simultaneous 2x bracket match.  In this format, eliminated shooters are added to the bracket match as they are eliminated.  We have done this several times on the mountain and it works quite well.  There are a few problems to be resolved:

1.  It is easy to overlooked an eliminated shooter from the bracket match.  This is just human error and can be taken care of with more careful registering.  Even if someone is overlooked, they can be added at a later round.  See the next problem.

2. Some will say it is unfair to add shooters to the bracket after it has begun. This is not a valid complaint because it is easier to progress upward in the bracket of eliminated shooters than it is to progress upward in the main match of winners.  You have to remember we score by losses not by wins.  If you are shooting a 2x main match and a 2x bracket match, every one gets 4 x s. It is very fair.

HERE IS WHERE I NEED HELP:

3.  The CFDA scoring program 20.0 seems to handle this well with the exception of standings when you get down to the final rounds of the bracket matches.  If all you care about is the final bracket winners the program is adequate for that.  But if the standings below 1st are important as they might be for club points, then in some brackets the standings are not accurate.  The problem is worst in some brackets.  If, for example, all of the Sheriffs went out early in the main match, then the standings appear to be fine in that bracket.  But if, for example, half of the Master Gunfighters went long in the match main then the standings are more of a problem in that bracket.  The problem stems from adding shooter after the match has begun.

I am looking for suggestions to fix this problem. Here on some of the fixes I will try:

1.  From the bracket report after round 2 or 3, entered all shooters in their appropriate bracket. All shooters would be in the bracket draw and shooters still in the main match would get a win with no time.  Shooters who draw main match shooters could be handled in one of two ways.  One would be to give them a bye win with no time.  The other alternative would be to provide that they move down the scoring sheet until they are matched with another shooter who has drawn a main match competitor or make the bottom of the scoring sheet for a CFDA bye.

2.  Add and only draw those shooters that are available to shoot in the bracket match. This is what I have done in the past that has given rise to the standing problem.  I am wondering if when I register them into the bracket match I edit their score with a win with no time in earlier rounds that would correct the problem.  I do not know enough about the cause to know whether this would fix the problem.  I know that editing scores can in itself create standings problems.

3.  Of course we can always abandon the computer when we get down to the final rounds of the brackets and keep  track of the standings manually.

ANY SUGGESTIONS OR THOUGHTS ON FIXES WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

In the perfect club shoot for us would be to have 48 shooters with the main match being completed and two or three of the brackets being completed at the same time. The final two shooters of the main match would enter and finish their brackets (one or two) after the main match is completed.  Most of the shooters would stay around and take down ranges.  Brackets would have 12 shooters each.  Experience tells me there would be enough shooters to start brackets after round 3. With two ranges you would shoot main match on both ranges for 3 rounds, then shoot main match on one and brackets on the other.

For some related discussions see "Don't sell yourself short; don't sell 19.5 short." November 9, 2019 and "What we learned and Fragmentation." July 3, 2019.

Handicapping the Arizona Top Gun Races

 We instituted a new Top Gun point system this year to increase the number of gunslingers that would be in the running for awards at the end of the year.  It is based on the CFDA bracket system and appears to be much more performance driven than the previous system.  Twelve awards are given, top three in each of the four brackets. The final match of the year will be January 2 and will be a CFDA type bracket shoot where the shooters will have a chance to shoot against those they are directly competing against in a 3x last man standing format.

Here is a preview of the gunfights:

Master Gunfighter:  The top three with Hitch, Shady and Muletrain are pretty much set, but final standings are yet to be determined.  Eight shooters: Rodeo Romeo, QC Carver, Lone Rider, Molasses, Cort O Whiskey, Old West, High Strung, and Dry Gulcher still have a shot at third.

Gunfighter:  Half Cock Willie appears to be a lock on the number one spot but dogboy has a chance to catch him. It would take a big turnout in numbers for him to reach the top spot.  The third spot appears to be a fight between Hotflash, No Name, Sgt Major, Rustler, Lazy Eye, Troublemaker and Miss Kitty.

Sheriff: Desert Gator has just regained the lead over Viper for the top gun of Sheriff.  The fight for third appears to be between Dakota Drifter, Dirty Harry, Mean Wolverine, Coyote Kid  and Wyoming Ranger.

Deputy: This bracket has the closest race with just 2 points separating the top three shooters, Javelina Hunter, Sky Queen and Yowee.  Four shooters, Matchstick Mitch, Buckboard Jer, Butch Winslow, and Sentenza appear to be within striking distance.

Turnout Matters:  Points are determined by the number of shooters in a bracket so turnout matters. Our numbers have been down a bit because of covid and the board has decided we only need one range. If it appears we may have a more normal turnout a second range is available.  Turnout matters, even if you are not a member or not in the running, come and join the fun.  It is a chance to shoot against shooters of your speed, you can be a spoiler or a help.  In some of the races, a large turnout will open the door to the awards podium for some shooters.  For illustration, a 60 shooter turnout puts Old West within reach of 3rd place, Rodeo within reach of 2nd in Master Gunfighter.  The larger the turnout the more competitive will be the races because there will be more points in play.

Disclaimer:  I have misplaced my worksheets and am doing this from memory, so if I have left someone out, I apologize, take it out on me on the line.  Official standings to be out shortly.

Bracket Test Shoot - What we learned?

We always test and train on any format that we are going to use in a club shoot.  We are planning to use a CFDA Bracket type shoot for our final event of the year.  See the previous post. The question to be determined is whether the CFDA scoring program and system will work with the point systems we are using.  That system determines place by x count and speed and therefore there is an inherent speed bias involved.  This is the exact method used in the seeding in the Arizona Bracket Shoot.  It is not unusual for a shooter to be placed below another shooter he has beaten head to head because  of the speed bias.  

The Test: Today to test how it would work, we shot a one bracket CFDA bracket shoot placing all shooters in the Master Gunfighter bracket, 3x last man standing format.  The consensus of the four board members that were there was the CFDA system would work provided we were aware of what a "recognized place" is.  Under the CFDA rules if an elimination with more than one shooter affects a recognized place there must be a shoot off.

In the bracket shoots itself there will be no recognized places.  We are not giving any thing out for the placement in the bracket. However, the placement may affect the top three for points.

Today, the current leader of the Master Gunfighter bracket was eliminated in the 8th round with one other shooter.  He is tied for the lead of the bracket and just a few points ahead of third.  Whether he gets third place or fourth place points may make the difference between whether he finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd in his bracket.  Therefore, under CFDA rules it is a recognized place and there should be a shoot off for place.  These shoot offs will be quite rare and probably will be shot off on lane 5 & 6 at the same time as the finals are decided.

I think the folks figuring this out will be able to make these decisions while the shoots are occurring.  The only time that I would think that it would be difficult to determine would be if someone would come to win for a long way out, say 5-10 points or more back.  Possible but not likely. 

What is likely is a tie in Master Gunfighter . If top three are tied, which is likely, if they go out early together, multiple shooter shoot-offs may be required, but that should be obvious if it happens.

The CFDA scoring will work!  To make it clearer we might just decide that for the top five places in each bracket there will be a shoot off if more than one goes out in the same round.  This does not take any more range time because lanes are available. That does not solve the problem of a competitive shooter going out early.  We will just have to be aware of that possibility.

The Association of Arizona Gunslingers Club Point System

I write this post to explain to the membership how the new club point system works and to let other clubs know of the system if they might find it beneficial.

The Problem: Under the old system only the same 2 or 3 shooters were competitive in each of the gender divisions. Year after year less than 10% of the membership had a reasonable chance of winning an award.  We had tried to solve this with most improved awards but that did not function very well.

This was the result of points being awarded by gender even though we never shoot gender divisions.  We shoot exclusively the Arizona Bracket Shoot at our club practice events wherein men, women, and youth all compete in the same event.  How well you do in the point standings many times was determined not by how well you shot but by who you drew.  Luck of the draw really played a major factor in your placings.

The old system was not as performance driven as the new system.

The Solution:  Under the new system we maintain a master spreadsheet of all shooters recording their fastest CFDA Bracket Report time for the year. We will have about 100 shooters on this list. For club points we only use club members (currently about 60) and divide the members into the four CFDA brackets, Master Gunfighter, Gunfighter, Sheriff and Deputy.  Club members are competing for awards, top three, against those other members in their bracket. The last shoot of the year, December, will be a CFDA bracket shoot so that in that event those who are competitive will have a chance to directly affect their standings.  It will be a big point event, probably a more than 20 point event.

Even though we only have four events so far this year it is apparent that over 40% of the membership will be competitive for awards and have a chance to be in the top three of their bracket come December.

The brackets are fluid, you can move up or down between the brackets based on your performance and the performance of the other shooters.

This is not a classification system.  Your bracket is determined by your performance at actual events.  

Club Points:  We recognize that the "main match" is nothing more than a seeding tournament and that points ought to be awarded based on your performance and not luck of the draw.  In the Arizona Bracket Shoot, competitors are seeded into brackets and the competition starts at that point.  Most events have three bracket but some have six such as Winter Range or other Jackpot shoots.  Points are awarded in inverse order and in the number of competitors in a bracket.  The larger the shoot the more points you can get. For illustration, January was a 20 point event, Winter Range 18 points (6 brackets), August 8 points, September 15 points.  You can probably count on having 20 point events through the end of the year.  In the State Championship, the 2nd chance shoot will count and those making the Magnificent 7 will get top bracket points plus 1 point and 1 point for each other club member they place above.

Sandbagging:    You really can not game this system.  Because your bracket is set by your fastest time for the year you can only move up to a faster bracket by your shooting, not down to a slower bracket.  The only way you  move down is if someone else moves above you and pushes you down into a slower bracket. Sandbagging will not be a problem.

Intentional sandbagging would be a Conduct Violation for "bending the rules to create an unfair advantage over fellow competitor," but we do not foresee that will be a problem with our membership, none of them will give you a millisecond.

For those that think you could do it on an event level consider this September event.  A shooter upon getting his first X mused that he should lose another to get into bracket B (he did not lose again). What that would gotten him was the opportunity to shoot against the hottest shooter at the event, the quickest shooter in the club.  You really don't know who is going be in bracket A, B, or C.  B or C might be tougher brackets.

Current Status:

The system seems to be working fairly well so far after only four events. It appears we will at least 24 to 30 shooters competing for awards come December.  The system is very performance driven.  Brackets do not appear to be that important. For illustration, the shooter with the top points in each bracket would be competitive for the top award even if they moved up to a faster bracket.  For example, top shooter in Deputy would be in third in Sheriff, top shooter in Sheriff would be 2nd if in Gunfighter. This is a result of the system being so performance driven.  You need to shoot well every event, or at least in 6 event, it being a best six event system.  

When we adopted this system we thought we would have 6 events by April. Making it a best six event system would have made the numerous snowbird members viable.

Another interesting factor is that this system gives shooters a chance to recover from tough luck of the draw or a slow start.  At the last event, the quickest shooter in the club, was able to recover from early losses to win 6 or 7 in a row to get 2nd place points. At the end of the event he was the hottest shooter there but not tough enough to get 1st place points.  The top gun Sheriff and  top gun Gunfighter both got 1st place points.  "A" bracket could only muster 2nd place points. (But on a personal note, the Master Gunfighter bracket is in a tie between the 10th and 11th quickest shooters in the club, performance counts.)

 

The Question Is.

The question is did the junior shooter Williehitit choose his alias after seeing the movie "Seven Days in Utopia."  To understand the question you need to see the movie and/or know the family. Williehitit gave me my first x in the 2019 Texas State Championship and he gave Quick Cal two of his four xs.

The movie is about a young professional golfer's growth as a golfer and a person.  The movie will help you become a better gunslinger and maybe a better person. 

This week on the mtn a young lady cut 300 milliseconds off her times by going from the extended follow through to shooting from the hip.  Three hundred is just the beginning, 400 maybe 500 is possible.  The questions is "Will she continue to buy what I am selling?"  It is not easy to leave the safety of being an 80% shooter for the glamour of speed but remember for Alleluia shooters "80% is just average."

Also this week a veteran shooter, normally a low five shooter, shot down into the threes. He did this last week also.  After the match he asked me "How did I do that?"  I responded that he just got out of the way.  We are all better shooters than we shoot if only we would get out of the way. Stop worrying about hitting the target.  Your shot will go where you are aligned.  Stop worrying about your speed.  You are faster than have ever shot.  Stop worrying about your opponent. It does not matter if the little ball goes in the hole. Bury your worries in Utopia, they are holding you back.

To demonstrate to a brand new shooter, we shot a three shooter match between myself, Shady, and Cort O' Whiskey. It was a classic shoot out. Later, I, Shady and Cort O' Whiskey did a three shooter Shady/Ruah speed run. In such a match because of the speed bias I have no chance, but to set the tone on the first shot I hit a .288. The question is "Was it anticipation or was it potential?" The draw came at least 80 mls after the light.  Which was it, that is the question.

When I meet Williehitit again in May what do think my opening comment should be?  "80% is just average," or "I ain't as slow as I look." Probably neither will work, he shoots with those Bushwhackers and I think some of them are on to me.

By the way Seven Days in Utopia is on Amazon Prime for free or you can rent it.  It is worth the rental.