The capacity of a 6 lane range is about 60 shooters. At Winter Range we had 90 shooter so we were at about 150% of capacity. To get the shoot in we had to use a five shot option for the entire event. The powers that be decided on the Nevada Five format followed by a First Two winning shots 1 x shoot off. This was not the best that we could have done but results from a lack of understanding among shooters of the options available.
At any event, World, Territorial, State, or large jackpot shoot, the main match is just a seeding tournament wherein the shooter are sorted from top to bottom. If there are 100 shooters then the main match sorts those shooters and ranks them for 1st to 100th.
Generally, our events do a pretty good job of sorting except for one major flaw, luck of the draw. If, for example, you are the 4th best shooter in a 3x event and you draw the three best shooters, you will be sorted out to the bottom of the event even if you hitting 100% at your quickest times. What mitigates luck of the draw is the elimination factor. The higher the X count, the more chance a shooter has to overcome a tough draw, but I have heard many a good shooter says "What chance did I have?" and then list 4 tougher shooters. Always remember for sorting the higher the x count, the more matches, the more shots in a match, the better the sort.
At Winter Range a five shot option was needed. Three options were considered, Montana Five, Nevada Five, and Arizona Five. With Montana Five and Nevada Five there are ties possible with a one shot sudden death to break the tie. In Montana Five the sudden death is unlimited and in Nevada Five the sudden death is limited to three shots. Because of the ties and tie breakers Montana Five and Nevada Five really do not save you much time. Most matches are extended to what would be needed just to shoot a standard Three Winning Shot format. Montana Five and Nevada Five do not sort well because ties become a sudden death shoot off in which 2/3 of the matches are decided by chance.
On the other hand, Arizona Five, saves you at least 25% in time. At Winter Range we could have shot five seeding rounds instead of four. What saves the time is that there are no ties in Arizona Five. Let me repeat, there are no ties in Arizona Five, only winners and those with an X. Because there are no ties, all matches end after five shots. Everyone leaves the line at the same time, either a winner or with an X. That is what saves the time. An additional and very substantial benefit of Arizona Five is that it promotes the valid sorting of shooters.
There are no ties in Arizona Five. Whoever has the most winning shots after five shots wins the match.
If the the score is 0-0 after five shots both shooters get a lose. For sorting, both shooters are hitting at 0% and neither can muster a winning shot. These two shooters should be sorted downward so they get a lose. If the score is 1-1 after five shots both shooters are hitting at less 40% and neither shooter can muster more than one winning shot or only 20% of their shots. So both these shooters should be sorted downward.
If the score is 2-2 after five shots, both shooters are hitting at least better than 40% and maybe as high as 80%, and both shooters have won at least 2 shots. Both of these shooters should be sorted upward. Both shooters get a win in Arizona Five.
The protestations against Arizona Five generally is that shooters don't like the ties. But there are no ties in Arizona Five, only winners and losers, and those are sorted as they should be.
A good illustration at Winter Range was Cowboy Up. In the third round he drew the second best shooter in the event. (How I know that later.) The match was 2-2 after five shots, both shooters having hit two winning shots. Since we were shooting Nevada Five, the match went to a sudden death next winning shot and Cowboy Up lost so he was sorted downward. Ultimately he was seeded 7th. Had we been shooting Arizona Five he would have gotten a win and been sorted upward. He would have been seeded in the top three if Arizona Five was being used.
Arizona Five would have save us time and we could have gotten in 5 rounds. The more rounds the better the sort.
Short Matches. A decision was made to use First Two Winning Shots in the shoot off. I don't consider first two winning shots a fair fight. The match is not long enough to determine who the best gunfighter is. If you think about it in the extreme and consider a match where the first winning shot wins, most would agree it is just a matter of chance as to who will win. In fact, in first winning shot, 1/3 of the matches will be determined by quickness and 2/3 by chance. First two winning shots is not much better. The match is just not long enough. Getting back to Cowboy Up, he met the same shooter in the shoot offs and hit the first two shots winning the match. Had the match been a three winning shots the odds favored his opponent.
A digression: Some will wonder what is the basis for some of my statements. Well, I have the gunfighter ratings for the top group of shooters at winter range. This is not speculation or based on averages. This is the actual results of the actual shots fired in an actual event. These are the rating for that day in the main match without any mental toughness factor. Gunfighter rating (combination of quickness and accuracy): The Draw, 1.38; Everett Hitch 1.27; Rodeo Romeo 1.12; Cowboy Up 1.10; Arizona Coy Dog 1.09; Old West 1.06; Hell on Wheels 1.04; Holli Day 1.04; Shady Mike 1.01.
Back to the Options. In you are out of time consider Arizona Five. It will not only save you 25% on the time needed but it also does a good sort which is the purpose of the main match. Even if you have plenty of time consider it for your practice matches.
Arizona Five is a great practice tool. It demands that you hit and hit right away. The pressure to hit duplicates the pressure in an event. It sorts well. Arizona Five is shot almost exclusively on Shady Mountain although we don't call it that, we do shoot it.
Those that protest against it probably are the shooters that need it most. If you don't like a five shot option it probably because you have trouble finding the target early in a match. If that is the case, you need to shoot more Arizona Five.
For a couple of shooters pretty evenly matched, the original marble match is great. It is Arizona Five with a marble (gold dollar) on the line. Five shots, most winning shots wins, loser put a marble in the can. If match is tied 2-2 both win, no marble. If tied 0-0 or 1-1, both put a marble in the can. At the next monthly shoot, double elimination three winning shot for all the marbles.
Now let's get to sorting!
"Been quick enough so far!" Virgil Cole
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Sunday, February 25, 2018
Winter Range 2018
Well, Winter Range is in the books. Congratulations to all of the shooters and especially the top three in each bracket. Rodeo Romeo won Bracket A coming from the 6th seed, a truly difficult task since the shoot off was a 1 x 2 winning shot affair. Rodeo was the toughest gunfighter at the event.
We had 90 shooters which put our 6 lane range at 150% of capacity. We had to adjust the format a bit going to Nevada Eight for the entire main match and then Best Two shot shoot off 1 x, but we got it all done before the sun set. The club in a box was in the box before dark thanks to all the gunslingers that stayed to put the range away.
The large numbers meant that the pot was large, payout was 80%, with substantial money going to California (Cowgirl Up), Colorado (Wench), and Iowa/South Dakota/Arizona (wherever Sky now calls home). Bracket winners were: A. Rodeo Romeo, Hell on Wheels, and the Draw; B. Grey Wander, Cowgirl Up, Sky Queen; C. Quiet Thunder, Wench, and Calaboose Bill. We had a little trouble getting Quiet Thunder to the photo op, with his protestation that he was not familiar with the routine, but I know that is not true since he put me out at the Springs last year.
Shootist Winners were Ladies: Miss Kitty and Wench; Men: Brasada Spur, Noah Chance, and Dirty Dan.
The cat factor kept us from using the best 5 shot option, more on that in a later blog. Next year, whether it is a Jackpot shoot or a State Championship, we will have two 6 lane ranges, the Loess Hills Paladins (another later blog) are committed to a second range for 2019 Winter Range raising our capacity to 120 shooters
On a personal note, I shot about as well as possible hitting at a better that 75% at low 4 quickness breaking down into the 3s for the SASS competition. No match for the entire week was less that 60% with most better than 80% except the last match (50%) which was a two winning shot format.
Unfortunately, we had to go to a two winning shot format for the shoot off since each bracket had more than 30 shooters in it. This format does not allow for sufficient shots to have a valid test of gunfighting ability. It make Rodeo's feat all the more remarkable.
Weather for the Jackpot Shoot was a bit nipping in the morning, but by mid day it was perfect. Hope to see you all next year at Winter Range. If you have never experienced it come early, more vendors than anywhere else, 800 plus SASS shooters, 5 days of practice if you want, then a big money jackpot shoot on Saturday or maybe a titled match, we will see. I'm lobbying for the 7 x shoot. (Another later blog)
We had 90 shooters which put our 6 lane range at 150% of capacity. We had to adjust the format a bit going to Nevada Eight for the entire main match and then Best Two shot shoot off 1 x, but we got it all done before the sun set. The club in a box was in the box before dark thanks to all the gunslingers that stayed to put the range away.
The large numbers meant that the pot was large, payout was 80%, with substantial money going to California (Cowgirl Up), Colorado (Wench), and Iowa/South Dakota/Arizona (wherever Sky now calls home). Bracket winners were: A. Rodeo Romeo, Hell on Wheels, and the Draw; B. Grey Wander, Cowgirl Up, Sky Queen; C. Quiet Thunder, Wench, and Calaboose Bill. We had a little trouble getting Quiet Thunder to the photo op, with his protestation that he was not familiar with the routine, but I know that is not true since he put me out at the Springs last year.
Shootist Winners were Ladies: Miss Kitty and Wench; Men: Brasada Spur, Noah Chance, and Dirty Dan.
The cat factor kept us from using the best 5 shot option, more on that in a later blog. Next year, whether it is a Jackpot shoot or a State Championship, we will have two 6 lane ranges, the Loess Hills Paladins (another later blog) are committed to a second range for 2019 Winter Range raising our capacity to 120 shooters
On a personal note, I shot about as well as possible hitting at a better that 75% at low 4 quickness breaking down into the 3s for the SASS competition. No match for the entire week was less that 60% with most better than 80% except the last match (50%) which was a two winning shot format.
Unfortunately, we had to go to a two winning shot format for the shoot off since each bracket had more than 30 shooters in it. This format does not allow for sufficient shots to have a valid test of gunfighting ability. It make Rodeo's feat all the more remarkable.
Weather for the Jackpot Shoot was a bit nipping in the morning, but by mid day it was perfect. Hope to see you all next year at Winter Range. If you have never experienced it come early, more vendors than anywhere else, 800 plus SASS shooters, 5 days of practice if you want, then a big money jackpot shoot on Saturday or maybe a titled match, we will see. I'm lobbying for the 7 x shoot. (Another later blog)
Monday, January 29, 2018
Grailfever
Rodeo Romeo has made some personal and hurtful comments to me. I did not mean to start an argument or say anything offensive to him, but if I did I apologize. He asks for an explanation and so here it is.
To be a competitive gunfighter you must have a finalized draw. By that I mean you draw to the same anchor point and fire each and every time. Each draw is identical to each other draw. Perfection is when every bullet hits the same hole in the exact identical time. By definition, if you have a finalized draw your quickest draw will be your most accurate shot because you are getting to the anchor point as quickly and as smoothly as possible. Anything that causes you to change your draw will cause you to have to re-finalize or re-learn your draw.
If you are constantly changing your draw to get that last millisecond of time, you have to relearn your draw with each change. Every change for whatever reason brings you back to the entry level of accuracy, from my observation less than 30%. To constantly chase the clock impedes a gunslinger's development. Disregard for where you hit takes away the opportunity for your subconscious to learn accuracy.
Partime in Texas is a good study in the development of a gunslinger. When I first saw him he was just another pretty gun. He would come to titled matches and after four rounds go home. Quick but hitting less than 30%. He even wrote a song about it. Then he came to the Springs and had a session with Marshall Cooper. Within six months he was the best gun in Texas. What happened? He finalized his draw. He began to hit the target and see every hit. He no longer was practicing missing. If you see every hit your mind and body will walk the hits to the light. Some will say he learned to be fast then he learned to be accurate. No, that is not what happened. When he was "learning to go fast," he just was not paying attention. Hitting didn't matter. He was depriving his subconscious the opportunity to learn to be accurate.
DO NOT PRACTICE ACCURACY! You can not do it. Practice speed only. To think about accuracy or to try to be accurate causes you to miss. "Any thought changes an expert into a novice." The Sports Gene.
What is needed is to give your subconscious the opportunity to learn those small incremental changes that walk the hits to the light. If you think about hitting you will miss. If you try to be accurate you will miss. If you think about going fast, you will be slow. (For me, trying to go fast in competition causes me to be about 30 mls slow)
"I was lucky in the order, but then I have always been lucky when it comes to killing folks." William Munny
Now to get personal. Saturday at Pioneer we shot an Arizona Bracket shoot. The field was divided into three brackets by x count and time out. In A bracket there were 15 gunslingers, all good and tough gunfighters, not an easy draw in the bunch. Of the 14 matches only three matches were decided by quickness, Old West was quicker than Shady, Holli Day put Old West out on quickness, and I put Ranger out on quickness. Quickness is important, but not as important as mental toughness. In the last seven matches only one match was decided on quickness. The rest were decided on something else and it ain't accuracy.
Those matches were decided on the mental processes of the gunslingers. Based on time out 6 of the 7 were quicker than me. What happened. Well, the same thing that happened at Nationals when 5 black badges went down to Johnny Three Toes. They thought about it. In some form of another they all thought, "I got to hit the target!" or they tried to slow down because you are more accurate when you slow down (another myth). When you think about hitting, you miss.
A couple of shooters Saturday were "slow shooting." Slow shooting is the kiss of death to a gunslinger. Why? Because you have to think when you are changing from fast to slow or from slow to fast. Any thought changes an expert into a novice.
Getting back to the subject at hand. I have suffered through several bouts of grailfever before and I know it takes about 6 months for it to run it's course. Even knowing that, come February 5, based mainly on comments by Levi, I will start a new stance and an new draw. I will start off the clock. Time does not matter. Only a finalized draw matters. It may be quicker or it may not be, but I will let my subconscious walk the hits to the light, there is no excuse for less than 80%.
"I warned em!" Virgil Cole
To be a competitive gunfighter you must have a finalized draw. By that I mean you draw to the same anchor point and fire each and every time. Each draw is identical to each other draw. Perfection is when every bullet hits the same hole in the exact identical time. By definition, if you have a finalized draw your quickest draw will be your most accurate shot because you are getting to the anchor point as quickly and as smoothly as possible. Anything that causes you to change your draw will cause you to have to re-finalize or re-learn your draw.
If you are constantly changing your draw to get that last millisecond of time, you have to relearn your draw with each change. Every change for whatever reason brings you back to the entry level of accuracy, from my observation less than 30%. To constantly chase the clock impedes a gunslinger's development. Disregard for where you hit takes away the opportunity for your subconscious to learn accuracy.
Partime in Texas is a good study in the development of a gunslinger. When I first saw him he was just another pretty gun. He would come to titled matches and after four rounds go home. Quick but hitting less than 30%. He even wrote a song about it. Then he came to the Springs and had a session with Marshall Cooper. Within six months he was the best gun in Texas. What happened? He finalized his draw. He began to hit the target and see every hit. He no longer was practicing missing. If you see every hit your mind and body will walk the hits to the light. Some will say he learned to be fast then he learned to be accurate. No, that is not what happened. When he was "learning to go fast," he just was not paying attention. Hitting didn't matter. He was depriving his subconscious the opportunity to learn to be accurate.
DO NOT PRACTICE ACCURACY! You can not do it. Practice speed only. To think about accuracy or to try to be accurate causes you to miss. "Any thought changes an expert into a novice." The Sports Gene.
What is needed is to give your subconscious the opportunity to learn those small incremental changes that walk the hits to the light. If you think about hitting you will miss. If you try to be accurate you will miss. If you think about going fast, you will be slow. (For me, trying to go fast in competition causes me to be about 30 mls slow)
"I was lucky in the order, but then I have always been lucky when it comes to killing folks." William Munny
Now to get personal. Saturday at Pioneer we shot an Arizona Bracket shoot. The field was divided into three brackets by x count and time out. In A bracket there were 15 gunslingers, all good and tough gunfighters, not an easy draw in the bunch. Of the 14 matches only three matches were decided by quickness, Old West was quicker than Shady, Holli Day put Old West out on quickness, and I put Ranger out on quickness. Quickness is important, but not as important as mental toughness. In the last seven matches only one match was decided on quickness. The rest were decided on something else and it ain't accuracy.
Those matches were decided on the mental processes of the gunslingers. Based on time out 6 of the 7 were quicker than me. What happened. Well, the same thing that happened at Nationals when 5 black badges went down to Johnny Three Toes. They thought about it. In some form of another they all thought, "I got to hit the target!" or they tried to slow down because you are more accurate when you slow down (another myth). When you think about hitting, you miss.
A couple of shooters Saturday were "slow shooting." Slow shooting is the kiss of death to a gunslinger. Why? Because you have to think when you are changing from fast to slow or from slow to fast. Any thought changes an expert into a novice.
Getting back to the subject at hand. I have suffered through several bouts of grailfever before and I know it takes about 6 months for it to run it's course. Even knowing that, come February 5, based mainly on comments by Levi, I will start a new stance and an new draw. I will start off the clock. Time does not matter. Only a finalized draw matters. It may be quicker or it may not be, but I will let my subconscious walk the hits to the light, there is no excuse for less than 80%.
"I warned em!" Virgil Cole
Friday, January 26, 2018
Lessons of Geography
I awoke this morning composing this post as a response to the swagger of loverboy, but upon further consideration decided that he deserves to strut a bit as long as he doesn't trip on his spurs. The vehicle was going to be a geography lesson, but then decided that the vehicle itself had merit since there may be some traveling here for Winter Range.
The main trail in and out of Phoenix is I-17. From the intersection of the main trail with Wickeburg/Carefree road, about 1/2 mile west is the venue for Winter Range. About a thousand shooters and their camp followers will be at Winter Range February 18 to 25. The Association of Arizona Gunslinger will have a 6 lane range up and running Feb 19 through 24, with a Arizona Bracket Shoot on the 24th. CFDA shooters can shoot all week warming up for Saturday, but it may not do you much good, as the competition is pretty salty at the Showdown at Winter Range.
If you head east down the Wickenbugr/Carefree Road, just about 1/2 mile past Central Avenue (divides Phoenix east and west) you will come to the road (7th Street) that goes from Shady Mountain north around Daisy Mountain back to the main trail (I-17). If you turn south about 1/2 mile you will come to Shady Mountain, the home range of many World and National Champions. Those champions gather about weekly, mostly for social shooting, gunsmithing, and general foolishness. Shooting there is by invitation, but Shady is pretty free with the invitations, his only limit being the space available for the crowd that wants to come.
If, at the intersection of the Carefree road and the Daisy Mtn road, you turn north and go about a mile you come to loverboy flats. When you will come to the girlie street (Dolores), turn east and go about 1/4 mile and you come to the Camp. The Camp is open 24/7 to CFDA shooters and it is a world class 6 lane facility where speed is king. The Camp has a jackpot shoot the first Saturday of the month and quarter matches the third Saturday of the month. The Camp has a 8' by 32' greased wall so there is no practice missing at the camp. If you practice at the Camp and shoot less that 80%, you are not paying attention.
From the intersection of the main trail and the Wickenburg/Carefree road, 1/2 mile to the north is Pioneer Village, Arizona Territory, the home range of The Association of Arizona Gunslingers. They hold a Arizona Bracket shoot on the fourth Saturday of every month. The saying is that "There is no lollygagging at Pioneer Village," but the very nature of the Arizona bracket shoot is to insure that the new shooter, the drifter, the youth and generally everyone feels welcome and competitive..
For those that want to shoot every Saturday, you can travel down the main roads through Phoenix out east beyond Red Mountain and shoot at the Rio Salado Range. The Salty River Cowboys (officially the Rio Salado Vaqueros) hold a club shoot the second Saturday of every month. It is alway an excellent shoot with different formats.
The Loess Hills Paladins, Have Range, Will Travel, are building their portable range at Shady Mtn. The Paladins plan to break camp and head for the Loess Hills when the snow is out of the mountain passes. They will go through Flagstaff then pick up the Pueros River onto the Rio Grande River to Santa Fe and the Santa Fe Trail. They intend to stop at Manual Lisa's place before heading onto the home range of the River City Gunslingers. I will give a photo report when the range is done, hope to set up at Pioneer Village, March 24.
Well, we will see how the swagger goes Saturday.
The main trail in and out of Phoenix is I-17. From the intersection of the main trail with Wickeburg/Carefree road, about 1/2 mile west is the venue for Winter Range. About a thousand shooters and their camp followers will be at Winter Range February 18 to 25. The Association of Arizona Gunslinger will have a 6 lane range up and running Feb 19 through 24, with a Arizona Bracket Shoot on the 24th. CFDA shooters can shoot all week warming up for Saturday, but it may not do you much good, as the competition is pretty salty at the Showdown at Winter Range.
If you head east down the Wickenbugr/Carefree Road, just about 1/2 mile past Central Avenue (divides Phoenix east and west) you will come to the road (7th Street) that goes from Shady Mountain north around Daisy Mountain back to the main trail (I-17). If you turn south about 1/2 mile you will come to Shady Mountain, the home range of many World and National Champions. Those champions gather about weekly, mostly for social shooting, gunsmithing, and general foolishness. Shooting there is by invitation, but Shady is pretty free with the invitations, his only limit being the space available for the crowd that wants to come.
If, at the intersection of the Carefree road and the Daisy Mtn road, you turn north and go about a mile you come to loverboy flats. When you will come to the girlie street (Dolores), turn east and go about 1/4 mile and you come to the Camp. The Camp is open 24/7 to CFDA shooters and it is a world class 6 lane facility where speed is king. The Camp has a jackpot shoot the first Saturday of the month and quarter matches the third Saturday of the month. The Camp has a 8' by 32' greased wall so there is no practice missing at the camp. If you practice at the Camp and shoot less that 80%, you are not paying attention.
From the intersection of the main trail and the Wickenburg/Carefree road, 1/2 mile to the north is Pioneer Village, Arizona Territory, the home range of The Association of Arizona Gunslingers. They hold a Arizona Bracket shoot on the fourth Saturday of every month. The saying is that "There is no lollygagging at Pioneer Village," but the very nature of the Arizona bracket shoot is to insure that the new shooter, the drifter, the youth and generally everyone feels welcome and competitive..
For those that want to shoot every Saturday, you can travel down the main roads through Phoenix out east beyond Red Mountain and shoot at the Rio Salado Range. The Salty River Cowboys (officially the Rio Salado Vaqueros) hold a club shoot the second Saturday of every month. It is alway an excellent shoot with different formats.
The Loess Hills Paladins, Have Range, Will Travel, are building their portable range at Shady Mtn. The Paladins plan to break camp and head for the Loess Hills when the snow is out of the mountain passes. They will go through Flagstaff then pick up the Pueros River onto the Rio Grande River to Santa Fe and the Santa Fe Trail. They intend to stop at Manual Lisa's place before heading onto the home range of the River City Gunslingers. I will give a photo report when the range is done, hope to set up at Pioneer Village, March 24.
Well, we will see how the swagger goes Saturday.
Thursday, January 4, 2018
If you think 2016 was bad, wait for 2018, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Got a look at the new holster rule, and if you thought 2016 was bad for gunfighters misbehaven, wait for 2018. It is going be a springs fiasco all year long. (No fault of the host.) Maybe we can some how divert the powers that be travel plans and the locals will get along just fine.
Any way, one of the funniest story I heard from the old timer yesterday was how when they used to shoot with the hand 6 inches from the gun the rule was enforced with a yardstick to measure the shooter hands during the draw. One particularly wired competitor came completely unglued with a stick being poked at him during his draw.
Now it appears the Comish has got a new bud, it will be interesting to see how he nips it comes spring. All I got to say is that the Range Masters in the Valley of the Sun don't tolerate nonsense much. Warm the penalty box up. I am impressed with the wisdom of my board, we don't have any title events here in 2018, so we can travel and be amused elsewhere.
Any way, one of the funniest story I heard from the old timer yesterday was how when they used to shoot with the hand 6 inches from the gun the rule was enforced with a yardstick to measure the shooter hands during the draw. One particularly wired competitor came completely unglued with a stick being poked at him during his draw.
Now it appears the Comish has got a new bud, it will be interesting to see how he nips it comes spring. All I got to say is that the Range Masters in the Valley of the Sun don't tolerate nonsense much. Warm the penalty box up. I am impressed with the wisdom of my board, we don't have any title events here in 2018, so we can travel and be amused elsewhere.
Tuesday, January 2, 2018
So you want to be a gunfighter!
Recently I had to opportunity to share thoughts on this sport with a aspiring gunfighter by text message. This topic being too voluminous for text I will share by blog.
Over the last two years I have competed in 30 to 40 events, club, State, Territorial, National, and World. What I have observed is that the average CFDA shooter has gunfighter rating of between .80 to .95. If a shooter has a rating of 1.0 or above for an event he or she is in the top 25% of the CFDA. Gunfighters that make it into the Magnificent 7 generally will be those with a gunfighter rating of 1.2 or better. Normally there is only a handful shooting this well, maybe 5% of the shooters.
Gunfighter rating is a shooter's speed index, 1 minus his normal quickness, plus his accuracy index, his average shooting percentage. For example a shooter with a quickness of .35 will have a speed index of .65 and if he is shooting at 30% accuracy his gunfighter rating will be .95.
It really does not matter how you get above 1.0 and to 1.2. A .6 shooter hitting at 80% for a rating of 1.2 is competitive with a .4 shooter hitting at 60% for a rating for 1.2. Granted speed matters, but not as much of you think when you get to the real gunfight, the Magnificent Seven. That is why that .6 shooter was able to put down all those black badges at Nationals. When you get to the real fight, where all the shooter are 1.2 shooters, then the deciding factor is mental toughness.
Speed is glamorous, but accuracy is deadly. The .35 shooter hitting 30% may think he is good, but really he is just a little above average. Get to 1.0 and you will start to be in the top 25% of shoots. Get to 1.2 and you will win most club shoots and make the Magnificent Seven of major shoots.
Those of us who compete against each other know the gunfighter rating of our opponents. We know who is the .5 shooter hitting 60% and who is a .4 shooter hitting only 40%. This ain't hard to figure out and over the long haul the .5 shooter is going to do consistently better than the .4 shooter. Now if that .4 shooter can move his accuracy to 50%, then he is at 1.1 same as the .5 shooter and they will probably split their matches throughout the year.
What is your gunfighter rating? Where do you want to be for 2018?
Over the last two years I have competed in 30 to 40 events, club, State, Territorial, National, and World. What I have observed is that the average CFDA shooter has gunfighter rating of between .80 to .95. If a shooter has a rating of 1.0 or above for an event he or she is in the top 25% of the CFDA. Gunfighters that make it into the Magnificent 7 generally will be those with a gunfighter rating of 1.2 or better. Normally there is only a handful shooting this well, maybe 5% of the shooters.
Gunfighter rating is a shooter's speed index, 1 minus his normal quickness, plus his accuracy index, his average shooting percentage. For example a shooter with a quickness of .35 will have a speed index of .65 and if he is shooting at 30% accuracy his gunfighter rating will be .95.
It really does not matter how you get above 1.0 and to 1.2. A .6 shooter hitting at 80% for a rating of 1.2 is competitive with a .4 shooter hitting at 60% for a rating for 1.2. Granted speed matters, but not as much of you think when you get to the real gunfight, the Magnificent Seven. That is why that .6 shooter was able to put down all those black badges at Nationals. When you get to the real fight, where all the shooter are 1.2 shooters, then the deciding factor is mental toughness.
Speed is glamorous, but accuracy is deadly. The .35 shooter hitting 30% may think he is good, but really he is just a little above average. Get to 1.0 and you will start to be in the top 25% of shoots. Get to 1.2 and you will win most club shoots and make the Magnificent Seven of major shoots.
Those of us who compete against each other know the gunfighter rating of our opponents. We know who is the .5 shooter hitting 60% and who is a .4 shooter hitting only 40%. This ain't hard to figure out and over the long haul the .5 shooter is going to do consistently better than the .4 shooter. Now if that .4 shooter can move his accuracy to 50%, then he is at 1.1 same as the .5 shooter and they will probably split their matches throughout the year.
What is your gunfighter rating? Where do you want to be for 2018?
Thursday, December 7, 2017
It all depends on how you count!
Last year about this time the board of The Association of Arizona Gunslingers, Inc., decided to have a club top gun award for 2017. The Trail Boss issued an edict that it would be a Best 8 after protestation from me that a total points would just be a participation award. Powder Keg was going to do it but he moved away in April and no one else took up the task. I have complied a spreadsheet for 2017 following the CFDA method of assigning 40 points to each club event and sorting using Best 8 but also listing total points and Best 6. I have email the sheet to the board for their use and consideration. Here are my thoughts which I share publicly for input from other members and other clubs.
Total Points: As predicted Shady wins on total points with the top five being, Shady, Half Cock, Hitch/Ruah, WOW, and Gator, but it is a tight race with only 7 points separating the top 3, and 15 point the top five. All five could win in it in December. However, fairness may be at issue in that two have 10 events, two have 9 events, and one only has 8 events. Total Points rewards participation and an argument can be made that the Top Gun award should reward participation. However, Total Points effectively eliminates about 90% of the shooters from the competition.
Best 8: For 2017, the Trail Boss said it would be Best 8 format. Under this format, the shooter with 8 events wins easily with a 28 point lead going into the final club match. It is unlikely that any one can catch him. The second place shooter only has 14 points in play so even if the leader does not shoot, he can not be caught.
You use a limited number of events to mitigate the effect of participation on the award. The lesser the number of events, the less effect of participation has on the competition and more shooters are effectively in play. CFDA uses 6. There were only ten shooters that had more than 8 events, so in effect, the competition is really an award among about 15 shooters (including some 6 or 7 event shooters) out of a total of 78 shooters who scored points.
Best 6: CFDA is Best 6 and this year it was a fight going down the last few matches at World. Old West won, a Shady Mtn shooter, but it was within a few points right down to the end. Our club competition would not have been that close. Using Best 6 the same shooter is the leader with a 21 point lead with the second place shooter again only having 14 points in play so the leader can not be caught. Best 6 does change the rest of the standing. It also brings more shooters of the club into the competition.
A negative of Best 6 is that it rewards inconsistency. For example, Rodeo Romeo places 7th in both Total Points and Best 8, but would move up to third in Best 6. That is because he has some poor shoots and if they are counted he is lower in the standings.
Average: One might think that average would be the fairest way to go. It would let all compete, even the one event shooter. Using average, the leaders are Powder Keg (3 events), Hitch/Ruah (8 events), Buckeroo Ben (2 events), and Two Feathers (1 event). Rodeo Romeo moves down the 9th place. If average is used I would think we would want some number of events to qualify, but that would add to the work in doing the calculating. Non-qualifiers would have to be deleted before sorting.
Administrative Ease: I assigned points using the CFDA format starting with 40 points for each match. I did not eliminate mavericks or non-club members. To eliminate those shooter would have increased the workload by at least double and would not have made a significant change in the standings. It took me two hours to import data and about 1/2 hour to sort the results.
Personal Comment: Using the Top Gun format for an award really is just a competition among about a dozen shooters and even among those it is fairly predictable who is going to win. There are really only a handful of Top Guns in the Valley and are we doing an award for ourselves, not necessarily for the membership because most are eliminated by the format. Would the club be better served with a system such as the Gunfighter Rating system. It would be more work, but might provide a wealth of information to our shooters. Shooters could see how they are progressing throughout the year.
Comments: I welcome comments, especially from other clubs on how you do it.
Total Points: As predicted Shady wins on total points with the top five being, Shady, Half Cock, Hitch/Ruah, WOW, and Gator, but it is a tight race with only 7 points separating the top 3, and 15 point the top five. All five could win in it in December. However, fairness may be at issue in that two have 10 events, two have 9 events, and one only has 8 events. Total Points rewards participation and an argument can be made that the Top Gun award should reward participation. However, Total Points effectively eliminates about 90% of the shooters from the competition.
Best 8: For 2017, the Trail Boss said it would be Best 8 format. Under this format, the shooter with 8 events wins easily with a 28 point lead going into the final club match. It is unlikely that any one can catch him. The second place shooter only has 14 points in play so even if the leader does not shoot, he can not be caught.
You use a limited number of events to mitigate the effect of participation on the award. The lesser the number of events, the less effect of participation has on the competition and more shooters are effectively in play. CFDA uses 6. There were only ten shooters that had more than 8 events, so in effect, the competition is really an award among about 15 shooters (including some 6 or 7 event shooters) out of a total of 78 shooters who scored points.
Best 6: CFDA is Best 6 and this year it was a fight going down the last few matches at World. Old West won, a Shady Mtn shooter, but it was within a few points right down to the end. Our club competition would not have been that close. Using Best 6 the same shooter is the leader with a 21 point lead with the second place shooter again only having 14 points in play so the leader can not be caught. Best 6 does change the rest of the standing. It also brings more shooters of the club into the competition.
A negative of Best 6 is that it rewards inconsistency. For example, Rodeo Romeo places 7th in both Total Points and Best 8, but would move up to third in Best 6. That is because he has some poor shoots and if they are counted he is lower in the standings.
Average: One might think that average would be the fairest way to go. It would let all compete, even the one event shooter. Using average, the leaders are Powder Keg (3 events), Hitch/Ruah (8 events), Buckeroo Ben (2 events), and Two Feathers (1 event). Rodeo Romeo moves down the 9th place. If average is used I would think we would want some number of events to qualify, but that would add to the work in doing the calculating. Non-qualifiers would have to be deleted before sorting.
Administrative Ease: I assigned points using the CFDA format starting with 40 points for each match. I did not eliminate mavericks or non-club members. To eliminate those shooter would have increased the workload by at least double and would not have made a significant change in the standings. It took me two hours to import data and about 1/2 hour to sort the results.
Personal Comment: Using the Top Gun format for an award really is just a competition among about a dozen shooters and even among those it is fairly predictable who is going to win. There are really only a handful of Top Guns in the Valley and are we doing an award for ourselves, not necessarily for the membership because most are eliminated by the format. Would the club be better served with a system such as the Gunfighter Rating system. It would be more work, but might provide a wealth of information to our shooters. Shooters could see how they are progressing throughout the year.
Comments: I welcome comments, especially from other clubs on how you do it.
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