Thursday, January 23, 2020

The Question Is.

The question is did the junior shooter Williehitit choose his alias after seeing the movie "Seven Days in Utopia."  To understand the question you need to see the movie and/or know the family. Williehitit gave me my first x in the 2019 Texas State Championship and he gave Quick Cal two of his four xs.

The movie is about a young professional golfer's growth as a golfer and a person.  The movie will help you become a better gunslinger and maybe a better person. 

This week on the mtn a young lady cut 300 milliseconds off her times by going from the extended follow through to shooting from the hip.  Three hundred is just the beginning, 400 maybe 500 is possible.  The questions is "Will she continue to buy what I am selling?"  It is not easy to leave the safety of being an 80% shooter for the glamour of speed but remember for Alleluia shooters "80% is just average."

Also this week a veteran shooter, normally a low five shooter, shot down into the threes. He did this last week also.  After the match he asked me "How did I do that?"  I responded that he just got out of the way.  We are all better shooters than we shoot if only we would get out of the way. Stop worrying about hitting the target.  Your shot will go where you are aligned.  Stop worrying about your speed.  You are faster than have ever shot.  Stop worrying about your opponent. It does not matter if the little ball goes in the hole. Bury your worries in Utopia, they are holding you back.

To demonstrate to a brand new shooter, we shot a three shooter match between myself, Shady, and Cort O' Whiskey. It was a classic shoot out. Later, I, Shady and Cort O' Whiskey did a three shooter Shady/Ruah speed run. In such a match because of the speed bias I have no chance, but to set the tone on the first shot I hit a .288. The question is "Was it anticipation or was it potential?" The draw came at least 80 mls after the light.  Which was it, that is the question.

When I meet Williehitit again in May what do think my opening comment should be?  "80% is just average," or "I ain't as slow as I look." Probably neither will work, he shoots with those Bushwhackers and I think some of them are on to me.

By the way Seven Days in Utopia is on Amazon Prime for free or you can rent it.  It is worth the rental.

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Three Shooter Match

At our mid-week practice we again shot a three shooter match. We had 19 shooters. We used a computer with 19.7 on it and again the CFDA program worked flawlessly.  We are following CFDA rules to the letter as I will explain below.

The field:  The field was our normal group of tough competitors of various speeds.  About 1/3rd of the field were low 4 shooters. There were no shooters that routinely shoot into the threes. 

We shot a three winning shots no x contest with a 1x Magnificent 19 shoot-off. Every shooter got a minimum of 6 rounds against 12 opponents selected by computer luck of the draw or by magnificent seeding.  Shooting 1x shoot-off meant we were able to shoot more main match rounds.  Last week shot 3 main match and a 2x shoot-off, this week we shot 5 main match and a 1x shoot-off.  If we do it again we will poll the shooter which they would prefer.

Rule IV6:  One shooter did not arrive until her match had been shot in the third round. In earlier rounds she received an x and a 33 with the program handling it correctly.  We did not have anyone leave early, but I am sure Rule IV 6 would have handled that correctly.

The Sort:  The sort again appeared to be good. 

It is practice, man, just practice!  Generally formats either have a gunfighter bias or a speed bias.  For illustration, the CFDA Bye has a definite gunfighter bias.  This three shooter match has a significant speed bias.  It is simple math.  If you match the best gunfighter against two speed shooters, in individual matches the gunfighter has the advantage.  In a combined three shooter match, the simple math is that the two speed shooters will have a combined accuracy greater than 60% so the better gunfighter is probably going to lose.

This speed bias for a practice regiment is probably a good thing.  If you look at the fastest time report you will find that four shooters shot into the 3s even though there were no three shooters in the field. Fastest times were a .358, others shot .389, .389 and a .398.  (On a personal note, it is hard to take that .398 to .389 defeat at 2 to 2.)  I know I shot my fastest competitive time in over a year and my guess is the others did to.   Although it was not discussed we all recognized that there was a speed bias and you had to be quick.

Placings:   Placings in the shoot-off were determined by following the CFDA practice of placing the quicker timeout higher in the standings. We considered having shoot-off but elected to follow CFDA since there were no "recognized places" involved.  (Since this is just a practice, had we decided to shoot shoot-offs of eliminated shooters, every shooter would had gotten a minimum of 7 rounds against 13 opponents.  Something to consider.)

Overall Conclusion:  The three shooter match is a great solution when you only have enough space for three targets and more shooters than two targets can handle.  It works well with the CFDA program and the progressive elimination shoot-off fairly divides range time among all shooters. (Just this week I was told by an old timer how disheartening it was to drive so far to just shoot 4 matches and go home.)  But in addition to that there may be additional value for training because of the speed bias. We shall see.  Will we be seeing quicker shooters on Shady Mtn?

Friday, January 3, 2020

Testing the Limits

This week on Shady Mtn we knew that we would have a big turn out because of new shooters and mavericks.  24 shooters signed up for our mid week practice.  Since normally we just have two targets we decided to add an additional target and to shoot three shooter matches.  We had done this several times this last summer and knew that the CFDA scoring program worked well with it.  The matches pitted three shooters against each other shooting three winning shots.  Every match results in one win and two losses.  All shooters got a minimum of 5 matches shooting against 10 other gunslingers.  The CFDA program worked flawlessly.

The Scoresheets:  By earlier testing we knew that 12 shooter scoresheets worked best with the printed sheet having the proper 1, 2, 3 lane assignments for the shooters. The only small issue is that the printed lines do not line up with the match, but once the scorekeeper knows that it is not a problem. The CFDA program handled the x count correctly for the entire match even though 1/3rd were wins and 2/3rds were losses.

The Main Match: We shot three rounds for the main match, each shooter facing 6 opposing shooters, except for a absence shooter, see below.  It was a no x contest and a match standing report gave us the shoot off seeding based on x count and time out.  This is standard here in Arizona for club shoots as will be explained below. 

The Shoot-off:  As is customary here in Arizona we did a progressive elimination shoot-off.  At clubs shoots here we divide the field into three groups then do simultaneous magnificent shoot-offs.  This allows all shooters to participate in a magnificent shoot-off and keeps the shooters engaged to the end which is important when you are taking down a range in 115 degree heat.

At Shady Mtn we did this but made it a 2x magnificent shoot-off.  A proper name for it is a 2x Magnificent 24 shoot-off.  We were able to do the 2x because we continued to use the 3 shooter match which results in 1 win and 2 losses in each match.  It took about 1 1/2 hours to shoot this shoot off.

Housekeeping: Arizona announcers and scorekeepers will be familiar with the method of doing the shoot-off.  You simply take the standing report and move from the bottom up crossing out the shooter being eliminated and assigning a place to that shooter.  No computer is used and only one sheet of paper is used.  To do a 2x progressive elimination you do the same thing except you make a second column for the 1x shooters and then progress up that column as well. I will attach a photo of this week's standing report to demonstrate.


For titled matches, 4 lanes are used, but for the Arizona club matches, since the shoot-offs are simultaneous only two lanes are available.  If you are doing a 2x on 2 lanes, you simply rotate the winners and losers, or if you prefer the no x and 1 x shooters.  Just remember you shoot winners, then losers, then winners, then losers until you get to two shooters.  Or if you prefer you shoot the left column on the standing report, then the right column, then the left, then the right. down to two shooters. (Being an old youth sports coach, I am used to losers brackets and it does not offend me. I give more credit to champions that come from the loser bracket.)

The Sort: The sort visually appears to be good.  Hi Strung defeated Shady Mike in two consecutive matches coming from the loser bracket. (Hi Strung is practicing hard for that FGA rematch and these come from behind wins may help him.) 

The Absence Shooter: One of the 24 shooters failed to appear and rather than take him out and risk scoring program glitches we simply followed CFDA Rule IV.6.  This worked well with the program moving him down in the standings as he accumulated xs and 33s.  Since we were shooting three shooter matches where ever he was drawn just became a two shooter match.  At titled matches, CFDA has tried to formulate SOP s that do not follow Rule IV.6 and it has never worked well.  Rule IV.6 works so well and it is so easy to use, if only shooters would accept that a forfeited match is just luck of the draw.  No different than drawing a shooter that misses all of their shots.

For Arizona Clubs:  At all of our club events the data people make a big deal out of asking those leaving after the main match to come and tell them so they can be taken out of the match. This is just wasted effort and actually causes the scoring program to place them at the bottom of the standings.  If you are shooting simultaneous magnificent shoot-offs it does not matter whether they are taken out or not. If they are not taken out, the announcer should just apply Rule IV.6 to give the absence shooter a forfeiture and move onto the next shooter.  For The Association of Arizona Gunslingers, club rules require this procedure because of club points.  Following Rule IV.6 is following CFDA rules.

Shady Mtn: I don't know if we will continue to use the 3 shooter range for our mid week practices.  We generally get more than 18 shooters so it makes sense from the range time aspect but it takes some extra work on the hosts.  This week we used my computer which has only 19.5 on it.  If we do it next week we will use Shady's computer which has 19.7 on it.

Either way, if you come to Shady Mtn not only will you learn how to win, you will learn to score keep and run the computer with the CFDA scoring program.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

To ISI, not to ISI, that is the question!

The question is whether it benefits a professional gunslinger, i.e. CFDA, to participate in an ISI event.

There is a significant number of gunslingers who believe shooting in an ISI event will lead to bad habits, defective draws such as the flail, shooting low, generally spraying wax everywhere.  This is a valid concern especially when coupled with the observation that shooters that participate in these events have not shot as well in professional events as you would expect based on their quickness.

An opposing view is that it is just another opportunity to excel.  Mental toughness is the most significant factor in a CFDA event. It is more important than accuracy, more important than quickness, and more important than luck of the draw. More gunfights are won or lost on mental toughness than the other three factors combined.

An ISI event can benefit the professional gunslinger when used as an event to practice mental toughness.  If you can stay focused on the task at hand you will do fairly well.  You are practicing that mental toughness necessary to win in professional events.  If you lose your focus and begin to race your opponent you will be doomed to boot hill not only in these events but in professional events also.

If you are going to participate in these events it would be good if you had some objective standard to determine whether you are improving as a gunfighter or getting worse. There a simple way to do this. We can use a gunfighter rating.  ISI stands for Individual Speed Index which is your historical average speed. Since they already compute this for you if you subtract it from one you have a speed number that is compatible with your hit ratio. To these two numbers you add the ratio of shots that qualify (faster than your ISI plus .03 nationally or in Arizona .02). This gives you a good rating of your ability.  Using the ISI ratio includes the factor of whether you are erratic in your shots relative to speed.

For illustration, last Saturday my ISI was .44 so my speed number was .56. I hit 98% and 98% of my shots qualified so my ISI gunfighter rating for the event was 2.52 (.56+.98+.98). A goal to strive for would be a ISI gunfighter rating of 2.70, which would be an average time of .3 hitting 100% with 100% qualifying shots.

I will probably continue to participate in these event so long as my ISI gunfighter rating stays the same or improves. 

Monday, November 4, 2019

Gunslingers, mark your calendars!

The 2020 season is shaping up to be one of the most interesting fun years yet.

Arizona:
 
There will be an Arizona State Championship at Pioneer Village, Arizona Territorial on March 28 and 29, 2020.  It will be 100% CFDA compliant but that does not mean it will not be unique.  Don't believe the ad you see in the gazette, the prizes will exceed $7,500, prizes for the main match alone will exceed the minimum.  And that is real value.  There will be no name tags, door prizes or other frills. As the assistant general manger of the Oakland As said in Moneyball, "We believe in keeping the money on the field."

There is no lollygagging at Pioneer Village. Shooting will start promptly at 8:30 and the rounds will be brisk.  We intend to shoot down to the final seven on the first day so that the Second Chance shoot will start promptly at 8:30 on Championship Day. Magnificent shoot-offs will start promptly at high noon. 

What will be unique about Arizona is that all shooters will still be in play for cash and awards  on the morning of Championship Day.  The cash prizes for the second chance shoot equal the cash prizes for the main match.  In addition to the cash, the awards will be a pound of copper from the copper state with appropriate inscriptions. When you think about it, a shooter's chance of winning substantial cash and an award will be four times better on Championship Day than at the start of day one.  If the luck of the draw gets you in the main match, in the second chance shoot you will only have to face one fourth of the eliminated shooters. (This is the format used at the 2019 Nationals.)

Holli has something planned on site that includes chuck for the evening on Saturday. You can be sure it will be fun.  Most gunfighters are not aware of what is all at Pioneer Village.  In addition to the town where we shoot, there is a Spanish town square, two other town squares, a church, shops, banks, and about a half dozen homesteads all moved from their original site to Pioneer Village. It is worth the stroll if you have the time, but as I said shooting will be brisk, but after the fourth x a stroll would be worth your effort.

For those who like to warm up there will be a Arizona Jackpot Bracket Shoot on Friday the 27th for the paltry entry fee of $20.  There will be 5 brackets for the short gun and a shootists bracket.  "We like keeping the money on the field" so the payout will be 80%.   This state being a state true to the republic principles of the founding fathers, the division of the prize money among the brackets will be equal.

When the application comes out I suggest early entry.  Entries received prior to March 1, 2020, will receive an extra chance in the drawing for the CFDA gun, part of the main match prize package. 

Texas;

I hear that Bret Maverick is out raising his entry fee for some poker game in the vicinity of Austin, Texas.  They tell me that this state championship had to be moved from March because a movie was being made at the venue until the end of April.  Sound like a great place to have a gunfight.




Arkansas:

It is a small world, I overheard a couple of boys at Shady Mountain planning a raid on the Arkansas State Championship.  Seems like the dates fit with my plan to abscond with the Maverick money, so maybe I can catch up with them on the trail to Warren, Arkansas.

Oklahoma, Louisiana, Oregon, and California:

Not to be overlooked is Oklahoma on March 13th-15th and California on May 15th - 17th, Louisiana, April 3-5th, Oregon April  24-26th.  Oh, so many choices.

Personal Schedule:  My dilemma for Thanksgiving is whether to shoot in the club match on the 30th.  My children tell me that I would be a delinquent grandfather if I do, so I may skip it.  My real motivation for skipping it is that it gives Shady Mike and Dirty Dan a chance to catch me in top gun points.  If they don't stumble, there will be three gunslingers within several point of each other on the 28th of December. I understand Dan has completed his garage range so he must be taking this seriously.  The Ladies race is equally tight.  If I were handicapping it I would not want to bet against any of the top four gunslingers.  Anyway, looks like the 28th will decide the top gun awards, both men and ladies.

Sunday, November 3, 2019

Don't sell yourself short; don't sell 19.5 short.

I write this post to be helpful, not to criticize.  Please take this that way, I do not want to be banished from another site.

At most titled events the host shoots seven rounds then quits for the day.  The eight round is shot on championship day and anyone going out can sign up for a second chance shoot, which is a shoot to occupy those that have been eliminated. Two problems with this being, one: the second chance shoot starts late thereby delaying the Magnificent shoot off and, two: those going out in the ninth and later rounds can not shoot in the second chance shoot.

The Loess Hills Paladins (not a CFDA club) held several events this year with a main match followed by a CFDA bracket shoot.  What was unique was that the second chance shoot started just as soon as there were enough shooters in a bracket (normally 6).  By doing this the second chance shoot did not delay the main shoot.  These events were last man standing affairs and both the main match and the second chance shoot ended at about the same time.  All eliminated shooters shot in the second chance shoot. 

Some critics say it is not fair to allow a shooter in late in the second chance shoot, but it is very fair.  It is much easier to advance four rounds in the main match and six rounds in the second chance shoot than it is to advance 10 rounds in the main match.  A shooter who advances 10 rounds in the main match deserves to get in the second chance shoot at a later point. We do not score by wins, we score by losses. What matters is that every shooter gets the same number of losses. For last man standing, it does not matter when you are Xed out, what matters is that you have the chance to X out.

When we tested this we found that 19.5 functions fine adding shooters after the shoot starts.  The only problem was that the match standing report during the event was not  entirely accurate, new shooters being added at the top of the standings, but this is not a huge problem since the shoot is normally last man standing.  You don't need this report during the match to run the event. Colorado State had this problem and the event ran fine without these reports.  At World, the computer crashed in round 7 and the event did just fine without these report.  I am not sure, but I think the program may correct itself in later rounds. In any event, the match standings can be adjusted at the end of the event. 

I post now because there is about four months until the next titled match and some may want to test out the capabilities of 19.5. Don't sell yourself short and don't underestimate the capabilities of 19.5

A local event:  The Association of Arizona Gunslingers will have its last shoot of the year on December 28. A good estimate of the number of shooters would be about 60 shooters.  We will have two ranges available.

A good event would be a 2x main match and a 2x CFDA second chance bracket shoot all using Nevada 8. (Arizona Five would have been better, we could have raised elimination factor in main match to 3, but that was a good idea that died a untimely death at the muster.) As with any event you need to consider range time.

A 2x main match with 60 shooters requires 119 losses to complete.  With 60 shooters you get 30 losses per full round, so it takes 4 full rounds to complete the main match. (A full round may contain more than one nominal round.)

Another way to look at it with Nevada 8 you get 25 losses per range per hour so the main match will take 2.4 hours of range time assuming 60 shooters on two ranges.  The second chance shoot will take not more than 116 losses to complete, so it will take 2.3 hours to complete.  Total range time is 4.7 hours.  We shoot from 8:30 to about 1:30 which is 5 hours of range time.  For 60 shooters with two ranges, the time requirement fits nicely.  If 75 shooters show up the elimination factor would need to be adjusted.  We would probably go with a 1x main match and a 2 x bracket second chance shoot.

The way that it would be run would be you run main match on both ranges for the first three rounds.  After two rounds you run your bracket report to seed the shooters into brackets for the second shoot.  After three rounds you have enough eliminated shooters to start the second chance shoot.  You move the main match to Range A and start the second chance shoot on Range B.  Both matches end about the same time.  By format, the main match ends not later than two round after the second chance shoot.  This is important to us because we have two ranges to take down and pack away and it is important to have most of the shooter still around.

Anyway, just a thought.  If you don't test your abilities, how will you ever know what you can do.  Don't sell yourself short, you are a better gunfighter than you know, and 19.5 can do more than you may think.

For a related discussion, see post "What we learned and fragmentation" a post on a similar format being used in a true resurrection event, a matter that I now believe to be "a good idea that can not be implemented," a quote from Dick Cheney.

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Stand Alone CFDA Bracket Shoot

The Association of Arizona Gunslingers, Inc., held a stand alone CFDA Bracket Shoot yesterday with 37 shooters  participating on 2 ranges. I think is was a very successful practice shoot.  You hold club practice shoots not only for the shooters to individually practice but also for the club as a whole to practice.  We did this, in part, to practice the bracket shoot which we are going to use as a second chance shoot on Championship Day at the 2020 Arizona State Championship.  At that shoot all shooters, let me repeat all shooters, will be still be shooting for substantial prizes and prize money on Championship Sunday.  We also needed to test out the Loess Hills portable range after significant improvement were made to the range.

Here is what we learned:

The results:  All four brackets were very competitive. The only adverse comment I heard was, "Boy, there are no easy draws in this shoot."
Bracket winners were: Master Gunfighter: The Draw, Gunfighter: Half Cock Willie, Sheriff: Cort O' Whiskey and Deputy: Detox. I regret not having photos and awards but maybe next year.  Congratulations to the winners and all the other shooters.  There were no easy matches with most brackets going down to the last shot of the last match.

The Range:  The Loess Hills range worked well.  The new netting was much easier to put up and maintain.  Bounced backs did not appear to be a problem.  The CFDA timers with the Beaver Creek box worked perfectly.  Shooters were able to see misses easily.  There was no microphone interference with the location used.  

It took two men two hours to put the range up.  Take down was done in 20 minutes with five men and the range was down and on the trailer before the shoot was completed on the other range.

The one negative that I observed was that the shooters were facing into the sun with the north/south orientation. It might be better to turn the range to a east /west orientation with the shooters shooting to the west.  It would take some more modifications to do that.  We would have to weld two more brackets the back of the target panels and get two more braces. The range then would be completely free standing.  By doing this we would also get the benefit of a darker background behind the targets there being a fence to the west.  We could also then park the truck and the trailer in the parking lot freeing up some space for the shooters.

Not our first rodeo:  Although this was the first ever CFDA Bracket shoot by a club in Arizona, it was not our first rodeo. The Loess Hills Paladins (not a CFDA club) has held several this year and on Shady Mountain we have been using this bracket shoot for our 19.5 (7) training sessions. We normally shoot a 1x main match followed by a CFDA bracket match.  It gives those training the chance to use the full range of options on the CFDA scoring program.

The Format:  This was not a classifications shoot but a bracket shoot based on actual prior performance. For most of the year, I obtained bracket reports from those clubs that use the CFDA program and entered those on a spreadsheet which had a column that recorded the quickest bracket report time. I then sorted by quickest bracket report time (2nd fastest).  I had times on 79 shooters and all 37 shooters had prior bracket report times.  Registering the shooters was based on these times and the brackets were fairly even.  Only two shooters needed to move to even out the brackets.  These shooters are what I refer to as border shooters, shooters right on the border between brackets that may go either way depending on the numbers. In most titled events I am a border shooter.

It is remarkable how consistent most shooters are.  There were a few shooters, mostly new shooters, who showed improvement as the year progressed in their bracket times.  I did not use any discretion in making up the brackets, it was not necessary.  

Future:  I was a little disappointed in the turn out.  I was hoping for 60 shooters.  I would suggest that this might make a good annual affair for Arizona.  October seems to be a good month to do it.  If all the clubs got behind it by using the CFDA scoring program at their club shoots and printed out a bracket report, it only takes a click to do, it could really become a fun event.  Gives you the chance to compete against those of your speed. What do you think?

Gunfighter Rating:  When I get my hands on the scoresheets I will do a gunfighter rating on the 37 shooters and email it to them.  It is always interesting to see why you placed where you did.

Bring me another shoot!