What if Rodeo Romeo does not draw Troublemaker in the first round? He would have been seeded # 1 and probably would have won Tombstone. What if he had shot consistently in the shoot offs, he probably would have won the event from the 8th seed. What if Pork Rind would not have drawn Rodeo, he would have been seeded 3rd and not had to face Rodeo again in the shoot offs. Lots of "What ifs." What if Alleluia shooters had not drawn other Alleluia shooters?
If you take a look at the top seven shooters, there is a common attribute among all of them. They are all consistent shooters. They do not beat themselves. If you are going to win against these shooters you have to out quick them. Among these top gunfighters generally they get sorted according to their quickness. Shoot offs are contests of speed, not lotteries.
The Arizona Bracket Shoot rewards consistency. The mentally tough gunfighters will come to the top in an Arizona Bracket shoot where they are sorted by quickness and mental toughness. The Tombstone event was well run. The only knock is that there was only one range for 80 shooters. We only got 4 seeding rounds in. Even with just four rounds, there was the opportunity to recover from a tough draw as Rodeo almost did from the 8th seed. It was his event to win, all he had to do was shoot "average."
It was not a fluke that the two top shooters were Alleluia shooters. Shady Mike used just 20 shots to win 5 matches. The second place Alleluia shooter shot just average using 26 for 6 matches. (80% is just average.) Other Alleluia shooters did not fare as well, but as one told me, "it is hard to transfer the system from the practice range to competition." It is not easy to stay focused for the entire event.
Sunday I went back to the venue to search for a lost name tag. The Old Publeo Gunfighters had the venue cleaned up better than it ever had looked in the past. They did a great job running this event. It is a great venue. I had the opportunity to again measure the venue. The Loess Hills Paladins range will fit easily on the east end of the venue. It was designed to fit on the west end and still will fit there but a section of the fence would have to be moved.
Well it is back to the drawing board for me. I got a can of marbles to get. I never forget a lose. Back to the bucket.
Monday, March 25, 2019
Thursday, March 21, 2019
A Better Bye.
I write this post for the powers that be, match directors, Marshals, club officers and the CFDA. This is something that you should think about and maybe experiment a bit with.
We love the CFDA bye even though it is inherently unfair. We love it because it is unfair. We all look forward to being that lucky shooter that advances without competing. It is not going away because we love it so much, but maybe there is room for improvement in some events.
For illustration, I am going to talk about the Old Timers Category at the Texas State Championship. There were 7 shooters and it was a 3x last man standing event which took 10 rounds to resolve. It took 10 rounds because the event winner lost his first match and therefore 19 loses were required. Because of CFDA byes one shooter did not compete in each of the first 8 rounds. The first 3 rounds (7 shooters) produced 9 loses. The next 3 rounds (5 shooters) produced 6 loses. The next 2 rounds (3 shooters) produced 2 loses. The last 2 rounds (2 shooters) produced 2 loses, for a total of 19 loses resolving the issue. Ten rounds were required because in the first 8 rounds one shooter did not compete in the match format. In additions to the 10 match format rounds, 8 shoot offs were required to allocate the bye. That is a total of 18 rounds.
Now what happens if every shooter is required to compete in every round. In the first 3 rounds (7 shooters), there would be 12 loses. In the next 2 rounds (5 shooters) there would be 6 loses. Then in the final round (2 shooters) there would be 1 lose for a total of 19 loses. The matter would have been resolved in 6 rounds with no shoot off rounds. So you go from requiring 18 rounds to 6 rounds.
It shortens up the match to such an extent that in the same amount of range time you could have shot a 4 x. Four x would have required 25 loses. Probably 4 rounds at 7 shooters for 16 loses, 2 rounds at 5 shooters for 6 loses, 1 round at 3 shooters for 2 loses and 1 round at 2 shooters for 1 lose for a total of 25 loses. The matter would have been resolved in 8 rounds using 4 x if you eliminate the noncompeting CFDA bye procedure.
So the questions for the shooters is which would you prefer? A 3 x with CFDA bye or a 4 x event without the CFDA bye. A side benefit is that you will get a better sort because the inherent unfairness of the CDFA bye is eliminated.
How do you do it without the bye. It is really pretty simply. The Rule would be:
"All shooters must compete using the match format in every round except when a Rule IV.6 forfeitures occur. If there is an odd number of shooters in a round, the last three shooters will compete together using the match format to its conclusion. Each shooter will be scored individually against each of the other shooters of the trio, a loss to either results in an x for the shooter. (This always results in one win and two loses, except in Arizona Five match format.)"
To give it a name I am going to call it the Arizona Bye. I think it will work well and could be use to great advantage in some of our side matches.
We are seeing more and more bracket matches on the championship day. I think this is good but one of the adverse side effects is the additional wear and tear on the shooters remaining in the main match. In 2016 Powder Keg won the Master Gunfighter bracket at Texas and I won the Gunfighter bracket. We both had the same comment, "Boy, that was a lot of work and shooting to do before the main match resumed!" Powder Keg went on to win the State Championship and I was eliminated in the first round after the bracket shoot. Some shooters forego the bracket shoot to rest for the main match. We might think about the Arizona Bye for these bracket matches. It probably would shorten the rounds necessary by 50% and the sort would be better.
You never know how something is going to work until you actually do it. We are going to test out the Arizona Bye at some Loess Hills Jackpot shoots to see how well it works. In fact whether I shoot or not at the next Loess Hills Jackpot shoot will depend on whether we have an odd number of shooters. If I need to sit out to make the number odd I will.
I always do Gunfighter Ratings on all of the shooters at Loess Hills Jackpot shoots. I don't need this to rate the shooters, I know who is who, but it is a good tool to evaluate how well the format is working. If a top shooter places much lower than you would expect you can look at the gunfighter rating to tell if he or she was just having a bad day or whether there is some other aberration involved in the format. Most of the time it is the unfairness of the luck of the draw.
I suggest clubs give the Arizona Bye a try. At the club level is the place to try these innovations out. Give it a try. I heard some other clubs are now trying Arizona Five. Try it you will like it. Try the Arizona Bracket shoot. I am tuning up today for that Arizona Bracket Shoot at Tombstone. Booked a room Saturday night so I can stay for the promenade on Allen Street. Hope I am celebrating and not drowning my sorrows.
We love the CFDA bye even though it is inherently unfair. We love it because it is unfair. We all look forward to being that lucky shooter that advances without competing. It is not going away because we love it so much, but maybe there is room for improvement in some events.
For illustration, I am going to talk about the Old Timers Category at the Texas State Championship. There were 7 shooters and it was a 3x last man standing event which took 10 rounds to resolve. It took 10 rounds because the event winner lost his first match and therefore 19 loses were required. Because of CFDA byes one shooter did not compete in each of the first 8 rounds. The first 3 rounds (7 shooters) produced 9 loses. The next 3 rounds (5 shooters) produced 6 loses. The next 2 rounds (3 shooters) produced 2 loses. The last 2 rounds (2 shooters) produced 2 loses, for a total of 19 loses resolving the issue. Ten rounds were required because in the first 8 rounds one shooter did not compete in the match format. In additions to the 10 match format rounds, 8 shoot offs were required to allocate the bye. That is a total of 18 rounds.
Now what happens if every shooter is required to compete in every round. In the first 3 rounds (7 shooters), there would be 12 loses. In the next 2 rounds (5 shooters) there would be 6 loses. Then in the final round (2 shooters) there would be 1 lose for a total of 19 loses. The matter would have been resolved in 6 rounds with no shoot off rounds. So you go from requiring 18 rounds to 6 rounds.
It shortens up the match to such an extent that in the same amount of range time you could have shot a 4 x. Four x would have required 25 loses. Probably 4 rounds at 7 shooters for 16 loses, 2 rounds at 5 shooters for 6 loses, 1 round at 3 shooters for 2 loses and 1 round at 2 shooters for 1 lose for a total of 25 loses. The matter would have been resolved in 8 rounds using 4 x if you eliminate the noncompeting CFDA bye procedure.
So the questions for the shooters is which would you prefer? A 3 x with CFDA bye or a 4 x event without the CFDA bye. A side benefit is that you will get a better sort because the inherent unfairness of the CDFA bye is eliminated.
How do you do it without the bye. It is really pretty simply. The Rule would be:
"All shooters must compete using the match format in every round except when a Rule IV.6 forfeitures occur. If there is an odd number of shooters in a round, the last three shooters will compete together using the match format to its conclusion. Each shooter will be scored individually against each of the other shooters of the trio, a loss to either results in an x for the shooter. (This always results in one win and two loses, except in Arizona Five match format.)"
To give it a name I am going to call it the Arizona Bye. I think it will work well and could be use to great advantage in some of our side matches.
We are seeing more and more bracket matches on the championship day. I think this is good but one of the adverse side effects is the additional wear and tear on the shooters remaining in the main match. In 2016 Powder Keg won the Master Gunfighter bracket at Texas and I won the Gunfighter bracket. We both had the same comment, "Boy, that was a lot of work and shooting to do before the main match resumed!" Powder Keg went on to win the State Championship and I was eliminated in the first round after the bracket shoot. Some shooters forego the bracket shoot to rest for the main match. We might think about the Arizona Bye for these bracket matches. It probably would shorten the rounds necessary by 50% and the sort would be better.
You never know how something is going to work until you actually do it. We are going to test out the Arizona Bye at some Loess Hills Jackpot shoots to see how well it works. In fact whether I shoot or not at the next Loess Hills Jackpot shoot will depend on whether we have an odd number of shooters. If I need to sit out to make the number odd I will.
I always do Gunfighter Ratings on all of the shooters at Loess Hills Jackpot shoots. I don't need this to rate the shooters, I know who is who, but it is a good tool to evaluate how well the format is working. If a top shooter places much lower than you would expect you can look at the gunfighter rating to tell if he or she was just having a bad day or whether there is some other aberration involved in the format. Most of the time it is the unfairness of the luck of the draw.
I suggest clubs give the Arizona Bye a try. At the club level is the place to try these innovations out. Give it a try. I heard some other clubs are now trying Arizona Five. Try it you will like it. Try the Arizona Bracket shoot. I am tuning up today for that Arizona Bracket Shoot at Tombstone. Booked a room Saturday night so I can stay for the promenade on Allen Street. Hope I am celebrating and not drowning my sorrows.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Texas State Championship
2019 Texas State Championship will go down as the year of the youth. There were 6 youth shooters shooting with the men, Trigger Happy, Lonestar Leadslinger, Just-in Time, Willy Hit It, Akaraka Zach, and Marshall Dylan. These young men are all now seniors and ready to take on the challenges of the world. What has always impressed me the most about CFDA is the kids and youth shooters. You will not find a more disciplined, respectful, courteous group of young people. I believe it is, in part, because they participate in a true sport that teaches discipline, responsibility, respect and courtesy.
The men's division was dominated by the youth shooters. Quick Cal was quickly dispatched to the scorer's table by drawing three of the youth shooters. It did not matter how quick Cal was, a .375 would be matched by a .372 by Willy Hit It, or if Cal got up 2 zip as in their second meeting, Willy Hit It then put three on the plate to send him to Boot Hill. I share Cal's pain, having drawn Willy Hit It, in my first match and being set down in three.
Every good deed does not go unpunished. I had the privilege of hand judging Lonestar Leadslinger early in the event. He was a bit flustered and fell behind his opponent. I spoke some words of encouragement to him and he settled down to put three on the plate to win the match. He made the Magnificent Seven with 3 x s where I meet him on lane 3 and 4. Three shots and I sat down in seventh place.
As in all titled events, luck of the draw is so important. At the 2019 Texas State you did not want to draw any of the youth shooters, they have now combined enough accuracy with the blazing speed to be deadly. None were deadlier than Trigger Happy. Look at the x count and time out of the top seven shooters. Trigger Happy won the event and has a time out speed of .433. Seventh place time out was .427. In between are 3 three shooters and Gentlemen George plodding along at .501.
Texas also shows you what a family affair this sport is. Gentleman George (Grandpa) was the crowd favorite but Trigger Happy (Grandson) took home the buckle but not before it went two matches down to the last shot. The battle for 4th and 5th was also family tussle between father and son, if only by law, with youth, Sgt Buck, prevailing over age, the Shootist.
On a personal note, I shot up to my ability. I missed my first four shots in the category match but after that hit better than 80% ("80% is just average"). All shots were within a 40 mls range and my quickest was on the final day. I got better and better, but that is the Alleluia system.
Texas was a well run titled event. Great place to shoot. Many thanks to all who helped put this event on.
The men's division was dominated by the youth shooters. Quick Cal was quickly dispatched to the scorer's table by drawing three of the youth shooters. It did not matter how quick Cal was, a .375 would be matched by a .372 by Willy Hit It, or if Cal got up 2 zip as in their second meeting, Willy Hit It then put three on the plate to send him to Boot Hill. I share Cal's pain, having drawn Willy Hit It, in my first match and being set down in three.
Every good deed does not go unpunished. I had the privilege of hand judging Lonestar Leadslinger early in the event. He was a bit flustered and fell behind his opponent. I spoke some words of encouragement to him and he settled down to put three on the plate to win the match. He made the Magnificent Seven with 3 x s where I meet him on lane 3 and 4. Three shots and I sat down in seventh place.
As in all titled events, luck of the draw is so important. At the 2019 Texas State you did not want to draw any of the youth shooters, they have now combined enough accuracy with the blazing speed to be deadly. None were deadlier than Trigger Happy. Look at the x count and time out of the top seven shooters. Trigger Happy won the event and has a time out speed of .433. Seventh place time out was .427. In between are 3 three shooters and Gentlemen George plodding along at .501.
Texas also shows you what a family affair this sport is. Gentleman George (Grandpa) was the crowd favorite but Trigger Happy (Grandson) took home the buckle but not before it went two matches down to the last shot. The battle for 4th and 5th was also family tussle between father and son, if only by law, with youth, Sgt Buck, prevailing over age, the Shootist.
On a personal note, I shot up to my ability. I missed my first four shots in the category match but after that hit better than 80% ("80% is just average"). All shots were within a 40 mls range and my quickest was on the final day. I got better and better, but that is the Alleluia system.
Texas was a well run titled event. Great place to shoot. Many thanks to all who helped put this event on.
Monday, March 4, 2019
More than one way to skin a cat.
We shot the Loess Hills Paladin Jackpot shoot at Shady mountain yesterday on two lanes with 15 shooters. We had an odd number shooters but because we only had two lanes we could not use the CFDA bye procedure. I have written on the inherent unfairness of the CFDA bye previously, see "Muster matters, Format matters, Newbies learn!", 9/17/2018. In a comment to that post Rodeo Romeo suggested a solution of having the last three shooters to continue to shoot until there is a winner among the three then the other two shooters both get an x. This suggestion has great merit and should be considered by CFDA. It would go a long way in solving the inherent unfairness that is especially troublesome in last man standing events. However, we could not use this suggestion because we only had two lanes.
What we did was to take the loser of the last full group and have he or she shoot against the odd bye shooter. That way nobody got to advance without shooting the format of the match. (The inherent problem with the CFDA bye is that the bye winner moves forward without competing in the format of the match.) This worked well until we had two losers in the final full group (possible with Arizona Five.) In that event, we had a one shot shoot off for the opportunity to shoot against the bye shooter, winner getting that opportunity.
This bye procedure worked well. I would note that the two top seeds both saved an x with this bye solutions. Remember in CFDA scoring wins do not matter. We score by loses that is "x"s.
Other Comments:
Generally, the Arizona Five format worked well. We shot 6 rounds in 3 hours, 15 shooters on 2 lanes. The gunfighter ratings of the gunslingers were lower than what you would expect at a club event, but that is what you would expect of Arizona Five because it is a little tougher format than 3 winning shots and therefore better for a practice event. If you want to get better at titled events, shoot Arizona Five! If you are going succeed you have to hit now, within the first 5 shots, there is no 7,8,9,10, etc shots to redeem you.
The sort was good. The seeding matched the gunfighter rating of the gunslingers. Arizona Five does a better job sorting because of the increase of rounds, elimination of the one shot lottery shoot off, and the feature that both shooters can get a loss if they are shooting poorly or both can get a win if they are shooting well.
We shot 48 matches in the seeding rounds. Only 2 matches resulted in double loses or 4% of the matches. Only 6 matches resulted in double wins or 12.5% of the matches. Together that would be 16% of the matches. The fact that double wins were three times more likely is a reflection of the quality of the shooters attending. To get a double lose both shooters must be shooting really poorly. On the other hand with the quality of the shooters attending, it is much more likely to have two shooters both shooting well and in that event both might get a win. Arizona Five properly sorts when two shooters are 2-2, both hitting 80%, both having won 2 shots on speed. It also sorts properly when one of those shooters hits 100%.
I think the Loess Hills Paladins will continue with monthly Arizona Five Jackpot shoots, third Sunday of the month looks good to me. I just need to sort out locations. At a minimum, the less than 20 works well on Shady Mtn.
When it gets to be 115 in the shade this summer, a little jackpot shoot at Rented Mule might be in order. Have Range, Will Travel.
What we did was to take the loser of the last full group and have he or she shoot against the odd bye shooter. That way nobody got to advance without shooting the format of the match. (The inherent problem with the CFDA bye is that the bye winner moves forward without competing in the format of the match.) This worked well until we had two losers in the final full group (possible with Arizona Five.) In that event, we had a one shot shoot off for the opportunity to shoot against the bye shooter, winner getting that opportunity.
This bye procedure worked well. I would note that the two top seeds both saved an x with this bye solutions. Remember in CFDA scoring wins do not matter. We score by loses that is "x"s.
Other Comments:
Generally, the Arizona Five format worked well. We shot 6 rounds in 3 hours, 15 shooters on 2 lanes. The gunfighter ratings of the gunslingers were lower than what you would expect at a club event, but that is what you would expect of Arizona Five because it is a little tougher format than 3 winning shots and therefore better for a practice event. If you want to get better at titled events, shoot Arizona Five! If you are going succeed you have to hit now, within the first 5 shots, there is no 7,8,9,10, etc shots to redeem you.
The sort was good. The seeding matched the gunfighter rating of the gunslingers. Arizona Five does a better job sorting because of the increase of rounds, elimination of the one shot lottery shoot off, and the feature that both shooters can get a loss if they are shooting poorly or both can get a win if they are shooting well.
We shot 48 matches in the seeding rounds. Only 2 matches resulted in double loses or 4% of the matches. Only 6 matches resulted in double wins or 12.5% of the matches. Together that would be 16% of the matches. The fact that double wins were three times more likely is a reflection of the quality of the shooters attending. To get a double lose both shooters must be shooting really poorly. On the other hand with the quality of the shooters attending, it is much more likely to have two shooters both shooting well and in that event both might get a win. Arizona Five properly sorts when two shooters are 2-2, both hitting 80%, both having won 2 shots on speed. It also sorts properly when one of those shooters hits 100%.
I think the Loess Hills Paladins will continue with monthly Arizona Five Jackpot shoots, third Sunday of the month looks good to me. I just need to sort out locations. At a minimum, the less than 20 works well on Shady Mtn.
When it gets to be 115 in the shade this summer, a little jackpot shoot at Rented Mule might be in order. Have Range, Will Travel.
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