Saturday, August 13, 2016

Handicapping the Men's Top Gun Race

With less than 60 days to go the men's top gun competition appears to be pretty well defined. Gray Ghost appears to lead but is actually in 6th with 217 points because "they counted seven." Skagway Sam suffered the same affliction and actually is in 10th with 181 points.  Being in the top ten this late in the season is quite an accomplishment.

One would have says the favorites probably are Marshall Cooper (8th) and Powder Keg (9th).  Marshall has the potential to add 110 points while Powder Keg can add 104 points. A dark horses may be The Draw (5th), Boulder (3rd) and Vic Torius (7th).

The Old Timers: Short Keg (1st) Everett Hitch (2nd),  Buzzard Cooper(4th) and The Draw (5th) seem to be solidly in the top ten even if they fade as their points are in the bank.

The race for that 10th place buckle appears to be between three gunslingers, Skagway Sam (10th), Whiplash (11th) and Mongo (12th).  I would put my money on Whiplash because he only has 5 events, but it is his first World and an early out would put him out.  All three could be pushed out of the top ten by a stretch run by Oregon Ranger (26th) with three events or Master Gunfighter (19th) with three events.  

It is a credit to our sport that the top twelve shooters includes four Old Timers and two new shooters.  Clearly illustrates that our shooters can be competitive well into their retirement years and new shooters can reach the top within their first few years.

I must not have enough to do.  Looking at the shooters potentials, if they win out, I think their maximum score would be, Marshall Cooper 307; Everett Hitch 301; the Draw 288; Short Keg 287; Powder Keg 286; Master Gunfighter 283; Gray Ghost 279; Boulder Vaquero 278; and Oregon Ranger 254.  Of course, they all can't win out.

Looking at the tenth spot looks to me that it will take 210 points to sneak  in.  If Whiplash does not shoot, my money would be on Mongo since he has a 10 points to drop off to Skagway Sam's 26 points.  Mongo will have 60 points available to Sam's 44 points at World. Whiplash will have 70 points available.

September 13 update.  Whiplash finished 4th in Kentucky State Championship so I think that moves him up to 7th with 214 points. He now has six events so it will be harder to move up since new events replace lower placing events.  Mongo also placed 6th gaining 13 additional point to move to 184 points and 10th place.

Last chance before FGA is Nebraska this weekend.  Better come and shoot if you want to move up. 

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