Saturday, February 25, 2017

A Change of Mind

For the last few years I have been ranting on format trying to lobby for changes that would insure that the best gunfighter on any given day would win. I promote the 6x match, the resurrection, the all in shoot off all in the belief that it is best to have the best gunfighter win.

In our sport, for the individual gunslinger how you do many times has more to do with the luck of the draw than how you are shooting.  If you are the 4th best gunslinger in a 3X match and you draw the top three gunslingers you are out before you get started. Likewise, if you are a middle of pack gunslinger and draw only gunslingers from the bottom of the pack you will place high.

Recently, I jokingly said these new super fast events were just one third of a CFDA event. I was wrong, there are just one fourth of a CFDA event.  They use a round robin format so the luck of the draw is eliminated. They have eliminated accuracy, mental toughness, and luck of the draw from the event.

The luck of a draw maybe a negative from an individual perspective, but for the sport as a whole it is a good thing.  It allows more shooters to do well.  It allows the average shooter to excel on occasion. It creates the illusion that we are better that we really are.  It creates the belief that we can win.  It is part of the reason why 59 show up at a club shoot and only 4 show up at a new speed event where accuracy, mental toughness, and luck of the draw has been eliminated. 

Changing my mind.

Well, got to go.  Winter Range jackpot shoot is calling and I believe I am the toughness gunslinger shooting today. (See what luck of the draw illusions do for you.)

Winter Range Jackpot Shoot is in the books.  We shot an Arizona Bracket Shoot with 73 shooters.  We had 5 seeding rounds with three being Arizona 5 and 2 being winning three shots, followed with three simultaneous Magnificent 24 1 X shoot offs. Finished at 5 p.m. with the club in a box being in the box by 6:00 p.m.  

I now have useful data on 73 shooters and have complied a gunslinger rating for each shooter using the seeding rounds only since those were the only ones available to me.  Factoring the speed, accuracy, and mental toughness, the ratings mirrors the final standings fairly well except for the winner.  Final standings do not affect the ratings but obviously the better you are shooting (rating) the higher will be your standing.  The top rated shooter (1.407474) finished 2nd.  The second highest rated shooter (1.213818) finished 3rd.  The 3rd rated shooter finished 6th. The 4th rated shooter finished 5th. 

The exception was first place. The 9th rated shooter won 1st.  Don't misunderstand me, he earned it and at this event he was the best gunfighter there, defeating the 2nd rated shooter, seeded 3rd, and then the top rated shooter, seeded 1st. He was the toughest draw.

I was curious about his rating and so I looked back at each of his seeding rounds.  What I found was that his opponents shot a combined 29% while his accuracy was 44%. So while his accuracy hurt his rating, the luck of the draw let him survive into the number 2 seed.  I can assure you, once there he shot like the champion that he is, hitting 75% in his final match.

I was also curious why the 5th rated shooter placed 14th.  Looking at his matches I find that his opponents shot a combined 59% to his 64% but that is not what dropped him in the standings.  He had one draw against a quicker shooter hitting 80% and therefore one loss. Luck of the draw!

Recently, Quick Cal, posted in response to one of the regulators, reaffirming that the balance between accuracy and speed makes the sport what it is today.  When you look at the data from a shoot, it become very apparent that it is this balance that wins matches and events. That top rated gunslinger was also the most accurate while being one of the quickest.  

Luck of the draw adds some spice to an event and I now believe it is a good thing for the sport when you look at the big picture.


  1. I'm not sure that I follow your reasoning, but I've found that there are several types of shooters at many event. 1) The folks who come to win. 2) The folks who come to have fun. 3) The folks who want to experience the camaraderie and fellowship with like-minded folks.

    This ain't a bad thing and the game needs all three types. Winning is good, winning is fine, but it's not the end-all for most folks. In any gathering of 60 shooters, you'll have 10 that really want to win, 40 that just wan to do well and have fun, and 10 that just want to be there.

    I've been shooting for two years now. I'm still in the 6s, but I'm having a ball. I really like the game, want to promote it, build clubs, promote competition. In those two years, I"ve won just exactly one minor trophy. I guess all the good shooters were busy that day.

    But, I'll be there shooting every chance I get. See ya on the line.

  2. Always appreciate your well reasoned comments. Lady luck was kind to me today.

  3. By the way, good gunslingers includes lots of 6,7 and 8 shooters.