Thursday, December 7, 2017

It all depends on how you count!

Last year about this time the board of The Association of Arizona Gunslingers, Inc., decided to have a club top gun award for 2017. The Trail Boss issued an edict that it would be a Best 8 after protestation from me that a total points would just be a participation award.  Powder Keg was going to do it but he moved away in April and no one else took up the task.  I have complied a spreadsheet for 2017 following the CFDA method of assigning 40 points to each club event and sorting using Best 8 but also listing total points and Best 6.  I have email the sheet to the board for their use and consideration.  Here are my thoughts which I share publicly for input from other members and other clubs.

Total Points:  As predicted Shady wins on total points with the top five being, Shady, Half Cock, Hitch/Ruah, WOW, and Gator, but it is a tight race with only 7 points separating the top 3, and 15 point the top five.  All five could win in it in December. However, fairness may be at issue in that two have 10 events, two have 9 events, and one only has 8 events.  Total Points rewards participation and an argument can be made that the Top Gun award should reward participation. However, Total Points effectively eliminates about 90% of the shooters from the competition.

Best 8:  For 2017, the Trail Boss said it would be Best 8 format. Under this format, the shooter with 8 events wins easily with a 28 point lead going into the final club match.  It is unlikely that any one can catch him.  The second place shooter only has 14 points in play so even if the leader does not shoot, he can not be caught.

You use a limited number of events to mitigate the effect of participation on the award.  The lesser the number of events, the less effect of participation has on the competition and more shooters are effectively in play.  CFDA uses 6.  There were only ten shooters that had more than 8 events, so in effect, the competition is really an award among about 15 shooters (including some 6 or 7 event shooters) out of a total of 78 shooters who scored points.

Best 6:  CFDA is Best 6 and this year it was a fight going down the last few matches at World. Old West won, a Shady Mtn shooter, but it was within a few points right down to the end. Our club competition would not have been that close.  Using Best 6 the same shooter is the leader with a 21 point lead with the second place shooter again only having 14 points in play so the leader can not be caught.  Best 6 does change the rest of the standing.  It also brings more shooters of the club into the competition.

A negative of Best 6 is that it rewards inconsistency.  For example, Rodeo Romeo places 7th in both Total Points and Best 8, but would move up to third in Best 6.  That is because he has some poor shoots and if they are counted he is lower in the standings.  

Average: One might think that average would be the fairest way to go.  It would let all compete, even the one event shooter.  Using average, the leaders are Powder Keg (3 events), Hitch/Ruah (8 events), Buckeroo Ben (2 events), and Two Feathers (1 event).  Rodeo Romeo moves down the 9th place.  If average is used I would think we would want some number of events to qualify, but that would add to the work in doing the calculating.  Non-qualifiers would have to be deleted before sorting.

Administrative Ease:  I assigned points using the CFDA format starting with 40 points for each match.  I did not eliminate mavericks or non-club members.  To eliminate those shooter would have increased the workload by at least double and would not have made a significant change in the standings.  It took me two hours to import data and about 1/2 hour to sort the results.

Personal Comment:  Using the Top Gun format for an award really is just a competition among about a dozen shooters and even among those it is fairly predictable who is going to win. There are really only a handful of Top Guns in the Valley and are we doing an award for ourselves, not necessarily for the membership because most are eliminated by the format.  Would the club be better served with a system such as the Gunfighter Rating system.  It would be more work, but might provide a wealth of information to our shooters.  Shooters could see how they are progressing throughout the year.

Comments:  I welcome comments, especially from other clubs on how you do it.

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