The Best Five Shot Option

The capacity of a 6 lane range is about 60 shooters. At Winter Range we had 90 shooter so we were at about 150% of capacity.  To get the shoot in we had to use a five shot option for the entire event. The powers that be decided on the Nevada Five format followed by a First Two winning shots 1 x shoot off.  This was not the best that we could have done but results from a lack of understanding among shooters of the options available.

At any event, World, Territorial, State, or large jackpot shoot, the main match is just a seeding tournament wherein the shooter are sorted from top to bottom.  If there are 100 shooters then the main match sorts those shooters and ranks them for 1st to 100th. 

Generally, our events do a pretty good job of sorting except for one major flaw, luck of the draw.  If, for example, you are the 4th best shooter in a 3x event and you draw the three best shooters, you will be sorted out to the bottom of the event even if you hitting 100% at your quickest times.  What mitigates luck of the draw is the elimination factor.  The higher the X count, the more chance a shooter has to overcome a tough draw, but I have heard many a good shooter says "What chance did I have?" and then list 4 tougher shooters.  Always remember for sorting the higher the x count, the more matches, the more shots in a match, the better the sort.

At Winter Range a five shot option was needed.  Three options were considered, Montana Five, Nevada Five, and Arizona Five. With Montana Five and Nevada Five there are ties possible with a one shot sudden death to break the tie. In Montana Five the sudden death is unlimited and in Nevada Five the sudden death is limited to three shots.  Because of the ties and tie breakers Montana Five and Nevada Five really do not save you much time. Most matches are extended to what would be needed just to shoot a standard Three Winning Shot format.  Montana Five and Nevada Five do not sort well because ties become a sudden death shoot off in which 2/3 of the matches are decided by chance.

On the other hand, Arizona Five, saves you at least 25% in time.  At Winter Range we could have shot five seeding rounds instead of four.  What saves the time is that there are no ties in Arizona Five.   Let me repeat, there are no ties in Arizona Five, only winners and those with an X.  Because there are no ties, all matches end after five shots.  Everyone leaves the line at the same time, either a winner or with an X.  That is what saves the time.  An additional and very substantial benefit of Arizona Five is that it promotes the valid sorting of shooters.

There are no ties in Arizona Five. Whoever has the most winning shots after five shots wins the match. 

If the the score is 0-0 after five shots both shooters get a lose.  For sorting, both shooters are hitting at 0% and neither can muster a winning shot.  These two shooters should be sorted downward so they get a lose. If the score is 1-1 after five shots both shooters are hitting at less 40% and neither shooter can muster more than one winning shot or only 20% of their shots. So both these shooters should be sorted downward.

If the score is 2-2 after five shots, both shooters are hitting at least better than 40% and maybe as high as 80%, and both shooters have won at least 2 shots.  Both of these shooters should be sorted upward.  Both shooters get a win in Arizona Five.

The protestations against Arizona Five generally is that shooters don't like the ties.  But there are no ties in Arizona Five, only winners and losers, and those are sorted as they should be.

A good illustration at Winter Range was Cowboy Up.  In the third round he drew the second best shooter in the event. (How I know that later.) The match was 2-2 after five shots, both shooters having hit two winning shots. Since we were shooting Nevada Five, the match went to a sudden death next winning shot and Cowboy Up lost so he was sorted downward. Ultimately he was seeded 7th.  Had we been shooting Arizona Five he would have gotten a win and been sorted upward.  He would have been seeded in the top three if Arizona Five was being used.  

Arizona Five would have save us time and we could have gotten in 5 rounds.  The more rounds the better the sort.

Short Matches.   A decision was made to use First Two Winning Shots in the shoot off.  I don't consider first two winning shots a fair fight.  The match is not long enough to determine who the best gunfighter is.  If you think about it in the extreme and consider a match where the first winning shot wins, most would agree it is just a matter of chance as to who will win.  In fact, in first winning shot, 1/3 of the matches will be determined by quickness and 2/3 by chance.  First two winning shots is not much better.  The match is just not long enough.  Getting back to Cowboy Up, he met the same shooter in the shoot offs and hit the first two shots winning the match.  Had the match been a three winning shots the odds favored his opponent.

A digression:  Some will wonder what is the basis for some of my statements.  Well, I have the gunfighter ratings for the top group of shooters at winter range.  This is not speculation or based on averages.  This is the actual results of the actual shots fired in an actual event.  These are the rating for that day in the main match without any mental toughness factor. Gunfighter rating (combination of quickness and accuracy): The Draw, 1.38; Everett Hitch 1.27; Rodeo Romeo 1.12; Cowboy Up 1.10; Arizona Coy Dog 1.09; Old West 1.06; Hell on Wheels 1.04; Holli Day 1.04; Shady Mike 1.01. 

Back to the Options.   In you are out of time consider Arizona Five.  It will not only save you 25% on the time needed but it also does a good sort which is the purpose of the main match.  Even if you have plenty of time consider it for your practice matches.

Arizona Five is a great practice tool.  It demands that you hit and hit right away.  The pressure to hit duplicates the pressure in an event. It sorts well.  Arizona Five is shot almost exclusively on Shady Mountain although we don't call it that, we do shoot it.  

Those that protest against it probably are the shooters that need it most.  If you don't like a five shot option it probably because you have trouble finding the target early in a match. If that is the case, you need to shoot more Arizona Five.

For a couple of shooters pretty evenly matched, the original marble match is great.  It is Arizona Five with a marble (gold dollar) on the line.  Five shots, most winning shots wins, loser put a marble in the can.  If match is tied 2-2 both win, no marble.  If tied 0-0 or 1-1, both put a marble in the can.  At the next monthly shoot, double elimination three winning shot for all the marbles.

Now let's get to sorting!

"Been quick enough so far!"  Virgil Cole