"The Sort" or "What will the Marshals muster?"

The CFDA main match is nothing more than a seeding tournament wherein shooters are sorted from first to last.  If the event is a magnificent event, when the field is reduced to about 10%, the main match ends and the shooters are seeded in a progressive 2x elimination shoot off. This removes the two inherently unfair factors involved in the main match.  For last man standing events, those factors remain to the last man standing.

For the Marshal's Muster there are three agenda items that the substance of which has similar issues.  When discussing this, the Marshals need to consider how well the proposed format sorts. The purpose of the main match is to sort and that should always be consider.  For example, matches determined by one shot do not sort well because the average hit percentage for shooters is about 45% and therefore it may be just a matter of chance who is sort up and who is sorted down. Also, for evenly matched opponents, speedwise, who wins and who loses may depend on who was given the faster cartridge.

Now for the agenda items:

Discussion at the Springs:  For those who were not there, in the Master Gunfighter bracket, shooting Nevada 8, the field had been reduced to two shooters, with recognized places being 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.  The shooters were clean and 1 x and the match went to 8 shots tied 1-1.  Most of the match officials and spectators thought the event was over but it was not because the rule is very specific that when the match is for a "recognized place" the eight shot limit is suspended and does not apply. The eventual winner hit the next shot winning the match and the shooters were then tied 1-1 in x count.  The eventual winner hit the first three shot of the next round winning the event.

I think this is on the agenda for educational purposes.  The rule as written is clear, specific and works well.  The problem is that most shooters are not aware of the rule.  If you did not like the results at the Springs it is because your favorite did not win, not because there is a problem with the format.  When you consider these two shooters, over the three matches that they shot, the eventual winner had a hit percentage of around 50% and the losing shooter had a hit percentage of 25% or less.  Speedwise, they were the final two shooters in the master gunfighter bracket and fairly evenly matched although most would say the loser was a bit quicker.  For those that understand gunfighter rating, over their three matches the winner shot at 1.08 and the loser shot at .85.  The format works and sorted correctly.  

Arizona Five:  This is on the agenda just to recognize it as an option for local events and side matches.  It is a good format that will save about 25% range time and it does sort better than other formats as explained.  Please read the notes on the agenda for its benefits as a local and side match format.  It usefulness is to save range time so that the elimination factor can be raised.  The higher the elimination factor the more the luck of the draw unfairness is mitigated.  There are no ties in Arizona Five and this feature may be of use in the next agenda item.

Overall Shot Limit:  A  overall shot limit is being proposed for all events including the main match. Unless the Marshals come to the meeting with a rope we are going to have a overall shot limit.  The limits of 8, 10, or 12 have been mentioned.  I would favor a limit of 8 shots because most shooters have become used to the 8 shot limit of Nevada 8.  It is easy to say the match is over after 8 shots and the shooter with the most winning shots wins but what do you do with the 0-0, 1-1, and the 2-2 matches. A couple of alternatives would be the Nevada 8 rule whereby both shooters get an x whether 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2, or the Arizona Five rule whereby 0-0 and 1-1 both get a x, and 2-2 both shooter get a win.  Considering the sort with the an 8 shot limit, you could have two shooters both hitting the fastest they have ever shot and both hitting 50% and the score tied 2-2.  In that case those shooters should be sorted up as what would happen in Arizona Five. (This happens more frequently than you would expect. It is not unusual for two shooters to hit four in a row,  then to miss repeatedly as they are both trying to squeeze out that last millisecond to win.)

If you set the limit at 10, the best 2-2 can be shooting is 40%.  If the limit is set at 12, the best 2-2 can be shooting is 33%.  Both these are below the CFDA average of 45%, so the Nevada 8 rule makes sense from a sorting perspective.

A further refinement would be does the limit apply when it is for a recognized place or does it apply in the magnificent shoot offs.  You can think about this in theory and think you know how it is going to work, but until you do it, you will not know for sure.  Cal needs to run this repeatedly before the end of the year so he knows exactly how it will work before it is implemented.  Testing was one of the things that the Loess Hills Paladins did, but it is going out of existence.

Format Matters! Will be looking for those byes this weekend.