Monday, February 28, 2022

A better shoot-off

For January we had 58 shooters, for February we had 61.  Next month we may have 70.  We really need to set up a second range.  With our normal shoot-off, it still would take over 2 hours to shoot a 3 bracket shoot-off. With a combined Mag 1x shoot-off we can shoot 7 or 8 seeding rounds and then have a 1 x shoot-off in just over an hour with two ranges.  It is not complicated or hard to do.  Actually it is much easier for announcers and score keepers.


Scoresheets:   At 1:01 p.m. Saturday I received the standing report for seeding.  We started shooting at 1:06 p.m.. By that time, I had the first two scoresheets prepared for rounds one through four. (I used old sheets because that is what I had with me.) A copy of the last page of the standing report is inserted:


The bottom six seeded shooters go on lane 1 to 6 and they constitute the first round.  The next three bottom shooters go on lanes 4, 5, and 6 for round two. (I will suggest changing the lanes later.) First scoresheet is ready to go and shooting can begin. This was done well before we started shooting with the three bracket system. Here is the score sheet for the first two rounds:



The next scoresheet is for rounds 3 and 4.  The next three shooters go on lanes 4,5, and  6 for round three and the next 3 shooters go on 4, 5, and 6 for round 4. Winners move down to 1, 2, and 3.  This second scoresheet was done before shooting started Saturday. Scoresheet for rounds 3 and 4:


I finished all scoresheets required at 1:19 or in 18 minutes.  It took 10 scoresheets or about 2 minutes per sheet to do. This was for one range, but for two ranges it would not have taken any longer. If I was doing this at a shoot, I would have one person making lane assignments and a good writer writing the six names needed on the score sheets.


Duplicating the Results:  I thought it would be a good idea to duplicate the results from Saturday's shoot using this system but found that that was not possible because of placing the new seeded shooters on lanes 4,  5, and 6. By putting the new shooters there the winners are always shooting winners and not newly seeded shooters, so it is impossible to duplicate the results.  I can almost duplicate the results by putting the new seeded shooters on even number lanes, 2, 4 and 6. This makes for an easy scoring  rule, winner on lanes 1 and 2, goes to lane 1, winner on lanes 3 and 4, goes to lane 3, and winner on lanes 5 and 6 goes to lane 5.  Winners are always shooting newly seeded shooters until you run out of them when you are down to 6 shooters or less.  Newly seeded shooters are highlighted in yellow.  You put them on the scoresheet with lower seeded shooter going on the top of the sheet in lanes 2, 4, 6 and then again in 2, 4, 6. When the scorekeeper gets this sheet there are only the 6 newly seeded shooter on the sheet.  The scorekeeper puts the winners in where they go following the rule. To illustrate here is page 9:




The final scoresheet would have been page 10.  There would been only been 4 shooters on this sheet in lanes 2, 4, 6 and then the top seed would have been in lane 2 of the next round. Notice the first 6 shooters would have been round 19, then round 20 would have had four shooters, the three winners and the top seeded Q.C Carter. Round 21 is the last pair on the sheet which is the final two winners,  this almost duplicates Saturday's  result.


Almost but Better:  This almost duplicates the results on Saturday but still does not because we are still using 6 lanes instead of two.  But the differences are actually much better.

Downside Risks:  Under are current system the top seed or any shooter can only drop one place by a loss.  Likewise the top seed only has to win one match to win the event.  Under this system the top seeded shooter has to win at least two matches to win the event and he could drop all the way to 4th. There is also greater risk for the shooter that does not show up. Old West was seeded 2nd and failed to appear (was not going to wait two hours to shoot) and under the current system he only dropped to 3rd.  Under this system it would drop him  to 7th (see placings below)

Speed bias and placings:  When I originally suggested this, I was concerned with mitigating the speed bias.  I thought that shooters going out together should get the same place instead of some getting an advantage based on speed.  I thought, for example, for Saturday the first three out should be in 20th place and so forth.  However, this is difficult to figure out during the shoot and I now think it is not worth the effort.  Also, shooters like to know a specific place. With only one range, only three shooters go out together, with two ranges 6 shooters go out together.  It is not worth the effort to change from the convention that placings are by time out. In regards to Old West, there were four shooters left when he went out with two other shooters.  He got a 22 so he is placed 7th and the other two are place on speed at 5th and 6th.  Someone who is not willing to wait around ought to placed lower than one spot.

Final Standings:  You can edit the final standings on the computer.  It is possible to have three or six shooter have the same standing. The problem is with how many places there are.  Without the speed bias, I think there would been 20 places on Saturday but I am not sure.  It takes some effort to figure it out.  Using the CFDA convention of time out it is easy. Of the first three out, the slowest time out is 61st place, then 60th and 59th.  I would suggest editing as the score sheets are completed, that way the final standing are done when the shoot is over.  If you don't use the speed bias you probably have to edit the standings after the match because you need time to figure out the placings.

Two Range Operation:  With two ranges, you would shoot down to about 12 or so on two ranges.  So the first 48 shooters would be assigned equally to range A & B.  Once you make the lane assignments which are done near the start of the shoot-off you can post the assignments and everyone will know when and where they are shooting. Saturday the highest 13 seeded shooters would be assigned to Range A.  When you get to that point you will have 16 shooters left, the last 13 plus 3 winners from Range B.  Range B would be available to be taken down at that time.

You can always do better, but only if you try!
 
 
PostScript:  You never know how things work until you do them a few times.  I reran the club shoot only doing it on two ranges and in the combined Mag 1x format.  When I ran it on one range, I overlooked that one shooter had 99 so excluding him left 60 shooters.  There was some interesting differences from a one range shoot.

Downside Risk:  Shooting on two ranges makes the downside risk greater.  Shooting on just two lanes the downside risk for the #1 seed was just one place.  Shooting on one range combined, 6 lanes, the downside risk for # 1 seed was 4 places.  Shooting on two ranges, 12 total lanes the downside risk is 8 places. For illustration,  on two ranges the # 1 seed would fall to 9th place if he lost his first match with a 22.  Also, the no show shooter who had been seeded 2nd falls to 9th in a two range combined shoot-off.  To win the event the #1 seed must win 4 matches in a combined two range Mag 1x shoot-off.

Upside Opportunity:  There is also better opportunity for the shooter shooting well in the shoot-off.  For illustration, I was seeded 8th and won 7 matches to move to second. Winning 8 matches would have won the event in the two lane Mag 1x shoot-off.  However, in a two range shoot-off any of the top 12 shooters can win with 4 wins.  Once a shooter makes to the top 12, they all have an equal opportunity to win.  The 12th shooter can win the event with 4 wins, just like the #1 shooter can win with 4 wins. One more win gets you to top six, one more gets you top three, then finals.  A combined shoot-off is much more fair.  It rewards those who are shooting well and negates the advantage of seeding.

Fundamental Fairness:  Under the current bracket system only the top seeded 1/3 have a chance to win the event. To be in that top 1/3, for the average shooter, it has more to do with chance than skill.  With a combined shoot-off, all shooters have a chance to win the event.  In the bracket system, the 20th seed would have to win 20 consecutive matches to win. The bottom 40 shooters have no chance to win. In the combined system, any shooter, even the 60th seed can win with 12 consecutive wins.

Time:  With 60 shooters a 1x shoot-off takes 59 matches, you need 59 losses.  A bracket system is limited to one range, so it takes 20 rounds.  With a combined system you can use two ranges, so the time for the shoot-off is cut almost in half.  More time for the seeding matches, which of course reduces the chance factor in seeding.

Conclusion:  The combined shoot-off is so much better than what we do now, there really no good reason not to try it.  It is no more work than what we do now.  It does not take any more time.

Setting up a second range does involve considerable more work but we should be doing that anyway during the cooler months.  With a good crew of four a second range can be set up between 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.

 


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