Handicapping the Arizona Top Gun Races

 We instituted a new Top Gun point system this year to increase the number of gunslingers that would be in the running for awards at the end of the year.  It is based on the CFDA bracket system and appears to be much more performance driven than the previous system.  Twelve awards are given, top three in each of the four brackets. The final match of the year will be January 2 and will be a CFDA type bracket shoot where the shooters will have a chance to shoot against those they are directly competing against in a 3x last man standing format.

Here is a preview of the gunfights:

Master Gunfighter:  The top three with Hitch, Shady and Muletrain are pretty much set, but final standings are yet to be determined.  Eight shooters: Rodeo Romeo, QC Carver, Lone Rider, Molasses, Cort O Whiskey, Old West, High Strung, and Dry Gulcher still have a shot at third.

Gunfighter:  Half Cock Willie appears to be a lock on the number one spot but dogboy has a chance to catch him. It would take a big turnout in numbers for him to reach the top spot.  The third spot appears to be a fight between Hotflash, No Name, Sgt Major, Rustler, Lazy Eye, Troublemaker and Miss Kitty.

Sheriff: Desert Gator has just regained the lead over Viper for the top gun of Sheriff.  The fight for third appears to be between Dakota Drifter, Dirty Harry, Mean Wolverine, Coyote Kid  and Wyoming Ranger.

Deputy: This bracket has the closest race with just 2 points separating the top three shooters, Javelina Hunter, Sky Queen and Yowee.  Four shooters, Matchstick Mitch, Buckboard Jer, Butch Winslow, and Sentenza appear to be within striking distance.

Turnout Matters:  Points are determined by the number of shooters in a bracket so turnout matters. Our numbers have been down a bit because of covid and the board has decided we only need one range. If it appears we may have a more normal turnout a second range is available.  Turnout matters, even if you are not a member or not in the running, come and join the fun.  It is a chance to shoot against shooters of your speed, you can be a spoiler or a help.  In some of the races, a large turnout will open the door to the awards podium for some shooters.  For illustration, a 60 shooter turnout puts Old West within reach of 3rd place, Rodeo within reach of 2nd in Master Gunfighter.  The larger the turnout the more competitive will be the races because there will be more points in play.

Disclaimer:  I have misplaced my worksheets and am doing this from memory, so if I have left someone out, I apologize, take it out on me on the line.  Official standings to be out shortly.

Bracket Test Shoot - What we learned?

We always test and train on any format that we are going to use in a club shoot.  We are planning to use a CFDA Bracket type shoot for our final event of the year.  See the previous post. The question to be determined is whether the CFDA scoring program and system will work with the point systems we are using.  That system determines place by x count and speed and therefore there is an inherent speed bias involved.  This is the exact method used in the seeding in the Arizona Bracket Shoot.  It is not unusual for a shooter to be placed below another shooter he has beaten head to head because  of the speed bias.  

The Test: Today to test how it would work, we shot a one bracket CFDA bracket shoot placing all shooters in the Master Gunfighter bracket, 3x last man standing format.  The consensus of the four board members that were there was the CFDA system would work provided we were aware of what a "recognized place" is.  Under the CFDA rules if an elimination with more than one shooter affects a recognized place there must be a shoot off.

In the bracket shoots itself there will be no recognized places.  We are not giving any thing out for the placement in the bracket. However, the placement may affect the top three for points.

Today, the current leader of the Master Gunfighter bracket was eliminated in the 8th round with one other shooter.  He is tied for the lead of the bracket and just a few points ahead of third.  Whether he gets third place or fourth place points may make the difference between whether he finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd in his bracket.  Therefore, under CFDA rules it is a recognized place and there should be a shoot off for place.  These shoot offs will be quite rare and probably will be shot off on lane 5 & 6 at the same time as the finals are decided.

I think the folks figuring this out will be able to make these decisions while the shoots are occurring.  The only time that I would think that it would be difficult to determine would be if someone would come to win for a long way out, say 5-10 points or more back.  Possible but not likely. 

What is likely is a tie in Master Gunfighter . If top three are tied, which is likely, if they go out early together, multiple shooter shoot-offs may be required, but that should be obvious if it happens.

The CFDA scoring will work!  To make it clearer we might just decide that for the top five places in each bracket there will be a shoot off if more than one goes out in the same round.  This does not take any more range time because lanes are available. That does not solve the problem of a competitive shooter going out early.  We will just have to be aware of that possibility.

The Association of Arizona Gunslingers Club Point System

I write this post to explain to the membership how the new club point system works and to let other clubs know of the system if they might find it beneficial.

The Problem: Under the old system only the same 2 or 3 shooters were competitive in each of the gender divisions. Year after year less than 10% of the membership had a reasonable chance of winning an award.  We had tried to solve this with most improved awards but that did not function very well.

This was the result of points being awarded by gender even though we never shoot gender divisions.  We shoot exclusively the Arizona Bracket Shoot at our club practice events wherein men, women, and youth all compete in the same event.  How well you do in the point standings many times was determined not by how well you shot but by who you drew.  Luck of the draw really played a major factor in your placings.

The old system was not as performance driven as the new system.

The Solution:  Under the new system we maintain a master spreadsheet of all shooters recording their fastest CFDA Bracket Report time for the year. We will have about 100 shooters on this list. For club points we only use club members (currently about 60) and divide the members into the four CFDA brackets, Master Gunfighter, Gunfighter, Sheriff and Deputy.  Club members are competing for awards, top three, against those other members in their bracket. The last shoot of the year, December, will be a CFDA bracket shoot so that in that event those who are competitive will have a chance to directly affect their standings.  It will be a big point event, probably a more than 20 point event.

Even though we only have four events so far this year it is apparent that over 40% of the membership will be competitive for awards and have a chance to be in the top three of their bracket come December.

The brackets are fluid, you can move up or down between the brackets based on your performance and the performance of the other shooters.

This is not a classification system.  Your bracket is determined by your performance at actual events.  

Club Points:  We recognize that the "main match" is nothing more than a seeding tournament and that points ought to be awarded based on your performance and not luck of the draw.  In the Arizona Bracket Shoot, competitors are seeded into brackets and the competition starts at that point.  Most events have three bracket but some have six such as Winter Range or other Jackpot shoots.  Points are awarded in inverse order and in the number of competitors in a bracket.  The larger the shoot the more points you can get. For illustration, January was a 20 point event, Winter Range 18 points (6 brackets), August 8 points, September 15 points.  You can probably count on having 20 point events through the end of the year.  In the State Championship, the 2nd chance shoot will count and those making the Magnificent 7 will get top bracket points plus 1 point and 1 point for each other club member they place above.

Sandbagging:    You really can not game this system.  Because your bracket is set by your fastest time for the year you can only move up to a faster bracket by your shooting, not down to a slower bracket.  The only way you  move down is if someone else moves above you and pushes you down into a slower bracket. Sandbagging will not be a problem.

Intentional sandbagging would be a Conduct Violation for "bending the rules to create an unfair advantage over fellow competitor," but we do not foresee that will be a problem with our membership, none of them will give you a millisecond.

For those that think you could do it on an event level consider this September event.  A shooter upon getting his first X mused that he should lose another to get into bracket B (he did not lose again). What that would gotten him was the opportunity to shoot against the hottest shooter at the event, the quickest shooter in the club.  You really don't know who is going be in bracket A, B, or C.  B or C might be tougher brackets.

Current Status:

The system seems to be working fairly well so far after only four events. It appears we will at least 24 to 30 shooters competing for awards come December.  The system is very performance driven.  Brackets do not appear to be that important. For illustration, the shooter with the top points in each bracket would be competitive for the top award even if they moved up to a faster bracket.  For example, top shooter in Deputy would be in third in Sheriff, top shooter in Sheriff would be 2nd if in Gunfighter. This is a result of the system being so performance driven.  You need to shoot well every event, or at least in 6 event, it being a best six event system.  

When we adopted this system we thought we would have 6 events by April. Making it a best six event system would have made the numerous snowbird members viable.

Another interesting factor is that this system gives shooters a chance to recover from tough luck of the draw or a slow start.  At the last event, the quickest shooter in the club, was able to recover from early losses to win 6 or 7 in a row to get 2nd place points. At the end of the event he was the hottest shooter there but not tough enough to get 1st place points.  The top gun Sheriff and  top gun Gunfighter both got 1st place points.  "A" bracket could only muster 2nd place points. (But on a personal note, the Master Gunfighter bracket is in a tie between the 10th and 11th quickest shooters in the club, performance counts.)

 

The Question Is.

The question is did the junior shooter Williehitit choose his alias after seeing the movie "Seven Days in Utopia."  To understand the question you need to see the movie and/or know the family. Williehitit gave me my first x in the 2019 Texas State Championship and he gave Quick Cal two of his four xs.

The movie is about a young professional golfer's growth as a golfer and a person.  The movie will help you become a better gunslinger and maybe a better person. 

This week on the mtn a young lady cut 300 milliseconds off her times by going from the extended follow through to shooting from the hip.  Three hundred is just the beginning, 400 maybe 500 is possible.  The questions is "Will she continue to buy what I am selling?"  It is not easy to leave the safety of being an 80% shooter for the glamour of speed but remember for Alleluia shooters "80% is just average."

Also this week a veteran shooter, normally a low five shooter, shot down into the threes. He did this last week also.  After the match he asked me "How did I do that?"  I responded that he just got out of the way.  We are all better shooters than we shoot if only we would get out of the way. Stop worrying about hitting the target.  Your shot will go where you are aligned.  Stop worrying about your speed.  You are faster than have ever shot.  Stop worrying about your opponent. It does not matter if the little ball goes in the hole. Bury your worries in Utopia, they are holding you back.

To demonstrate to a brand new shooter, we shot a three shooter match between myself, Shady, and Cort O' Whiskey. It was a classic shoot out. Later, I, Shady and Cort O' Whiskey did a three shooter Shady/Ruah speed run. In such a match because of the speed bias I have no chance, but to set the tone on the first shot I hit a .288. The question is "Was it anticipation or was it potential?" The draw came at least 80 mls after the light.  Which was it, that is the question.

When I meet Williehitit again in May what do think my opening comment should be?  "80% is just average," or "I ain't as slow as I look." Probably neither will work, he shoots with those Bushwhackers and I think some of them are on to me.

By the way Seven Days in Utopia is on Amazon Prime for free or you can rent it.  It is worth the rental.

Three Shooter Match

At our mid-week practice we again shot a three shooter match. We had 19 shooters. We used a computer with 19.7 on it and again the CFDA program worked flawlessly.  We are following CFDA rules to the letter as I will explain below.

The field:  The field was our normal group of tough competitors of various speeds.  About 1/3rd of the field were low 4 shooters. There were no shooters that routinely shoot into the threes. 

We shot a three winning shots no x contest with a 1x Magnificent 19 shoot-off. Every shooter got a minimum of 6 rounds against 12 opponents selected by computer luck of the draw or by magnificent seeding.  Shooting 1x shoot-off meant we were able to shoot more main match rounds.  Last week shot 3 main match and a 2x shoot-off, this week we shot 5 main match and a 1x shoot-off.  If we do it again we will poll the shooter which they would prefer.

Rule IV6:  One shooter did not arrive until her match had been shot in the third round. In earlier rounds she received an x and a 33 with the program handling it correctly.  We did not have anyone leave early, but I am sure Rule IV 6 would have handled that correctly.

The Sort:  The sort again appeared to be good. 

It is practice, man, just practice!  Generally formats either have a gunfighter bias or a speed bias.  For illustration, the CFDA Bye has a definite gunfighter bias.  This three shooter match has a significant speed bias.  It is simple math.  If you match the best gunfighter against two speed shooters, in individual matches the gunfighter has the advantage.  In a combined three shooter match, the simple math is that the two speed shooters will have a combined accuracy greater than 60% so the better gunfighter is probably going to lose.

This speed bias for a practice regiment is probably a good thing.  If you look at the fastest time report you will find that four shooters shot into the 3s even though there were no three shooters in the field. Fastest times were a .358, others shot .389, .389 and a .398.  (On a personal note, it is hard to take that .398 to .389 defeat at 2 to 2.)  I know I shot my fastest competitive time in over a year and my guess is the others did to.   Although it was not discussed we all recognized that there was a speed bias and you had to be quick.

Placings:   Placings in the shoot-off were determined by following the CFDA practice of placing the quicker timeout higher in the standings. We considered having shoot-off but elected to follow CFDA since there were no "recognized places" involved.  (Since this is just a practice, had we decided to shoot shoot-offs of eliminated shooters, every shooter would had gotten a minimum of 7 rounds against 13 opponents.  Something to consider.)

Overall Conclusion:  The three shooter match is a great solution when you only have enough space for three targets and more shooters than two targets can handle.  It works well with the CFDA program and the progressive elimination shoot-off fairly divides range time among all shooters. (Just this week I was told by an old timer how disheartening it was to drive so far to just shoot 4 matches and go home.)  But in addition to that there may be additional value for training because of the speed bias. We shall see.  Will we be seeing quicker shooters on Shady Mtn?

Testing the Limits

This week on Shady Mtn we knew that we would have a big turn out because of new shooters and mavericks.  24 shooters signed up for our mid week practice.  Since normally we just have two targets we decided to add an additional target and to shoot three shooter matches.  We had done this several times this last summer and knew that the CFDA scoring program worked well with it.  The matches pitted three shooters against each other shooting three winning shots.  Every match results in one win and two losses.  All shooters got a minimum of 5 matches shooting against 10 other gunslingers.  The CFDA program worked flawlessly.

The Scoresheets:  By earlier testing we knew that 12 shooter scoresheets worked best with the printed sheet having the proper 1, 2, 3 lane assignments for the shooters. The only small issue is that the printed lines do not line up with the match, but once the scorekeeper knows that it is not a problem. The CFDA program handled the x count correctly for the entire match even though 1/3rd were wins and 2/3rds were losses.

The Main Match: We shot three rounds for the main match, each shooter facing 6 opposing shooters, except for a absence shooter, see below.  It was a no x contest and a match standing report gave us the shoot off seeding based on x count and time out.  This is standard here in Arizona for club shoots as will be explained below. 

The Shoot-off:  As is customary here in Arizona we did a progressive elimination shoot-off.  At clubs shoots here we divide the field into three groups then do simultaneous magnificent shoot-offs.  This allows all shooters to participate in a magnificent shoot-off and keeps the shooters engaged to the end which is important when you are taking down a range in 115 degree heat.

At Shady Mtn we did this but made it a 2x magnificent shoot-off.  A proper name for it is a 2x Magnificent 24 shoot-off.  We were able to do the 2x because we continued to use the 3 shooter match which results in 1 win and 2 losses in each match.  It took about 1 1/2 hours to shoot this shoot off.

Housekeeping: Arizona announcers and scorekeepers will be familiar with the method of doing the shoot-off.  You simply take the standing report and move from the bottom up crossing out the shooter being eliminated and assigning a place to that shooter.  No computer is used and only one sheet of paper is used.  To do a 2x progressive elimination you do the same thing except you make a second column for the 1x shooters and then progress up that column as well. I will attach a photo of this week's standing report to demonstrate.

For titled matches, 4 lanes are used, but for the Arizona club matches, since the shoot-offs are simultaneous only two lanes are available.  If you are doing a 2x on 2 lanes, you simply rotate the winners and losers, or if you prefer the no x and 1 x shooters.  Just remember you shoot winners, then losers, then winners, then losers until you get to two shooters.  Or if you prefer you shoot the left column on the standing report, then the right column, then the left, then the right. down to two shooters. (Being an old youth sports coach, I am used to losers brackets and it does not offend me. I give more credit to champions that come from the loser bracket.)

The Sort: The sort visually appears to be good.  Hi Strung defeated Shady Mike in two consecutive matches coming from the loser bracket. (Hi Strung is practicing hard for that FGA rematch and these come from behind wins may help him.) 

The Absence Shooter: One of the 24 shooters failed to appear and rather than take him out and risk scoring program glitches we simply followed CFDA Rule IV.6.  This worked well with the program moving him down in the standings as he accumulated xs and 33s.  Since we were shooting three shooter matches where ever he was drawn just became a two shooter match.  At titled matches, CFDA has tried to formulate SOP s that do not follow Rule IV.6 and it has never worked well.  Rule IV.6 works so well and it is so easy to use, if only shooters would accept that a forfeited match is just luck of the draw.  No different than drawing a shooter that misses all of their shots.

For Arizona Clubs:  At all of our club events the data people make a big deal out of asking those leaving after the main match to come and tell them so they can be taken out of the match. This is just wasted effort and actually causes the scoring program to place them at the bottom of the standings.  If you are shooting simultaneous magnificent shoot-offs it does not matter whether they are taken out or not. If they are not taken out, the announcer should just apply Rule IV.6 to give the absence shooter a forfeiture and move onto the next shooter.  For The Association of Arizona Gunslingers, club rules require this procedure because of club points.  Following Rule IV.6 is following CFDA rules.

Shady Mtn: I don't know if we will continue to use the 3 shooter range for our mid week practices.  We generally get more than 18 shooters so it makes sense from the range time aspect but it takes some extra work on the hosts.  This week we used my computer which has only 19.5 on it.  If we do it next week we will use Shady's computer which has 19.7 on it.

Either way, if you come to Shady Mtn not only will you learn how to win, you will learn to score keep and run the computer with the CFDA scoring program.